Exploring strategy context with foresight

Strategic management literatures have contributed significantly to our understanding of strategic decision‐making, strategy formulation, strategy content and process. However, research into strategy context has been spasmodic, less interrogative and non‐systemic. Hence, the relationship between cont...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:European management review 2004-03, Vol.1 (1), p.69-77
Main Authors: MacKay, R Bradley, McKiernan, Peter
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bias
Cognition & reasoning
context
counterfactual reasoning
Decision making
Determinism
Information processing
Management theory
Psychological research
scenario thinking
Strategic management
Studies
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Summary:Strategic management literatures have contributed significantly to our understanding of strategic decision‐making, strategy formulation, strategy content and process. However, research into strategy context has been spasmodic, less interrogative and non‐systemic. Hence, the relationship between context and both the content and process dimensions is not well understood. Recently, many organizations have been turning to scenario thinking methodologies to explore, facilitate and foster a linkage that enables better strategy content to develop. Scenario thinking has enhanced environmental sense‐making in many organizations. But, such processes have come under increasing criticism for missing weak signals and emerging patterns in the underlying drivers of future change. This paper examines the reasons for these flaws by reference to recent developments in the cognitive psychology literature. It then investigates the strengths and weaknesses of using counterfactual reasoning as a tool for reducing the main biases that lead to foresightful thinking failures.
ISSN:1740-4754
1740-4762
DOI:10.1057/palgrave.emr.1500010