A longitudinal study of electricity consumption growth in Kenya

• Published in: Energy policy 2018-12, Vol.123, p.569-578
• Main Authors: Fobi, Simone, Deshpande, Varun, Ondiek, Samson, Modi, Vijay, Taneja, Jay
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Computer networks; Consumption; Correlation analysis; Customers; Electricity; Electricity consumption; Electrification; Energy consumption; Energy policy; Energy utilization; Entrepreneurs; Entrepreneurship; Evolution; Finance; Finance companies; Growth; International finance; International financing; Kenya; Longitudinal studies; Penetration; Planners; Policy making; Public finance; Rural areas; Rural communities; Steady state; Urbanization
• ISSN: 0301-4215; 1873-6777
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.08.065

During the past 5 years, electrification in Kenya has grown by more than 30% due primarily to increases in grid penetration and solar home systems. This represents a way forward for governments, international finance institutions, and entrepreneurs to address some of the challenges of energy access. However, little is understood about how consumption has evolved among these newly-electrified customers. In this paper, we address this by conducting a longitudinal analysis for 136k utility customers across Kenya over six years of electricity bills, uncovering critical trends in spatio-temporal evolution of electricity consumption. Our analysis reveals that recently-electrified customers are reaching their steady-state consumption more quickly than previous customers, that the steady-state is increasingly less, and that typical urban and peri-urban customers tend to consume 50% more electricity than rural customers. In addition we present implications for policymakers and electricity planners considering grid extension and distributed systems for improving electrification. •Newer customers progressively peak in consumption at a lower level and earlier.•Consumption of urban customers is typically 50% more than that of rural customers.•While aggregate consumption has grown, changes within customer groups are obscured.•Evolution of consumption profiles is crucial for developing region energy planners.