Forecasting Domestic Tourism Demand: Application to Las Vegas Arrivals Data

A study that uses various models to generate forecasts of visitor arrivals in Las Vegas is presented. The study illustrates that the superiority of the no change extrapolation model in the context of international tourism forecasting does not carry over to the domestic tourism forecasting case. The...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of travel research 1992-07, Vol.31 (1), p.36
Main Authors: Witt, Stephen F, Newbould, Gerald D, Watkins, Alan J
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Demand
Forecasting techniques
Statistical analysis
Studies
Tourism
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:A study that uses various models to generate forecasts of visitor arrivals in Las Vegas is presented. The study illustrates that the superiority of the no change extrapolation model in the context of international tourism forecasting does not carry over to the domestic tourism forecasting case. The study shows that exponential smoothing generates forecasts with lower error magnitudes than no change. There is evidence that domestic tourist flows are more predictable than international tourist flows, and it seems possible to capture the major features of the data series pattern, thus generating the relatively accurate forecasts of tourism demand.
ISSN:0047-2875
1552-6763