Impacts of Tropical Indian and Atlantic Ocean Warming on the Occurrence of the 2017/2018 La Niña

• Published in: Geophysical research letters 2019-03, Vol.46 (6), p.3435-3445
• Main Authors: Zhang, Chao, Luo, Jing‐Jia, Li, Shuanglin
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Anomalies; Basins; El Nino; El Nino phenomena; False alarms; La Nina; La Nina events; Meteorological satellites; Ocean currents; Ocean temperature; Ocean warming; Oceans; Regression analysis; Sea surface; Sea surface temperature; Surface temperature; the 2017/2018 La Niña; the long‐lasting La Niña; the tropical Indian and Atlantic Ocean warming; Tropical climate; Variance analysis; Zonal winds
• ISSN: 0094-8276; 1944-8007
• DOI: 10.1029/2019GL082280

The occurrence of the 2017/2018 La Niña, following a weak‐to‐neutral La Niña in boreal winter 2016/2017, was surprising. Based on observational records and multiple linear regression analysis for the Pacific zonal wind tendency (dU/dt), this study investigates possible reasons why the La Niña condition suddenly happened in late 2017. Similar to previous four double‐peaked La Niña events (1983–1985, 1998–2000, 2007–2009, and 2010–2012), we find that the multiyearly persistent easterly anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific is a key condition to the development of the second La Niña. The occurrence of the 2017/2018 La Niña results from large warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans that act to force the persistent easterly anomaly in the Pacific via modifying the Walker Circulations. About 24% of the variance of the Pacific dU/dt can be statistically explained by the tropical Indian Ocean and Atlantic SST anomalies. Plain Language Summary The 2017/2018 La Niña appears to be surprising, given that an El Niño‐like condition has already developed in the first half of 2017 but actually in opposite to most models' forecasts that issued a false alarm of an El Niño. Previous studies suggested that both the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans have exhibited a rapid warming in recent decades, which have caused an easterly trend in the central Pacific. In this study, we examine the possible contributions of the tropical Indian Ocean and Atlantic SSTs to the occurrence of the second La Niña in 2017/2018. Our results highlight the importance of the SST warming in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans for the occurrence of the second La Niña under rapid SST warming in the two basins during recent decades. Key Points Persistent easterly anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific is a key condition to the occurrence of the second La Niña Rapid SST warming in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans acts to strengthen the persistent easterly anomaly About 24% of the variance of the dU/dt in the central equatorial Pacific during 1980‐2017 can be explained by the IO and AO SSTAs