ENSO hindcast skill of the IAP-DecPreS near-term climate prediction system: comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization

Model initialization is a key process of climate predictions using dynamical models. In this study, the authors evaluated the performances of two distinct initialization approaches-anomaly and full-field initializations-in ENSO predictions conducted using the IAP-DecPreS near-term climate prediction...

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Published in:Atmospheric and oceanic science letters = Daqi-he-haiyang-kexue-kuaibao 2018-01, Vol.11 (1), p.54-62
Main Authors: SUN, Qian, WU, Bo, ZHOU, Tian-Jun, YAN, Zi-Xiang
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Anomalies
anomaly initialization
Atmospheric circulation
Atmospheric physics
Climate prediction
coupled general circulation model
Data collection
El Nino
El Nino phenomena
ENSO prediction
ENSO预测
full-field initialization
General circulation models
La Nina
Near-term climate prediction system
Ocean currents
Oceanic analysis
Physics
Sea surface
Sea surface temperature
Southern Oscillation
全场初始化
异常场初始化
耦合环流模式
近期气候预测系统
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Summary:Model initialization is a key process of climate predictions using dynamical models. In this study, the authors evaluated the performances of two distinct initialization approaches-anomaly and full-field initializations-in ENSO predictions conducted using the IAP-DecPreS near-term climate prediction system developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP). IAP-DecPreS is composed of the FGOALS-s2 coupled general circulation model and a newly developed ocean data assimilation scheme called 'ensemble optimal interpolation-incremental analysis update' (EnOI-IAU). It was found that, for IAP-DecPreS, the hindcast runs using the anomaly initialization have higher predictive skills for both conventional ENSO and El Niño Modoki, as compared to using the full-field initialization. The anomaly hindcasts can predict super El Niño/La Nina 10 months in advance and have good skill for most moderate and weak ENSO events about 4-7 months in advance. The predictive skill of the anomaly hindcasts for El Niño Modoki is close to that for conventional ENSO. On the other hand, the anomaly hindcasts at 1- and 4-month lead time can reproduce the major features of large-scale patterns of sea surface temperature, precipitation and atmospheric circulation anomalies during conventional ENSO and El Niño Modoki winter.
ISSN:1674-2834
2376-6123
DOI:10.1080/16742834.2018.1411753