ASEAN grid flexibility: Preparedness for grid integration of renewable energy

• Published in: Energy policy 2019-05, Vol.128, p.711-726
• Main Authors: Huang, Yu Wen, Kittner, Noah, Kammen, Daniel M.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Access; ASEAN Power Grid; Clean energy; Cooperation; Cost analysis; Economic forecasting; Electricity; Electricity distribution; Electricity generation; Electricity market; Electricity pricing; Energy; Energy policy; Flexibility; Flexibility analysis; Forecasting; Grid operation; Intermittent; Load distribution; Markets; Natural gas; Operators; Quantitative analysis; Ramps; Reliability; Reliability analysis; Renewable energy; Renewable resources; Variable renewable energy
• ISSN: 0301-4215; 1873-6777
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.01.025

In 2015, ASEAN established a goal of increasing its renewable energy share in its energy portfolio from approximately 13–23% by 2025. Renewable electricity, especially intermittent and variable sources, presents challenges for grid operators due to the uncertain timing and quantity of electricity supply. Grid flexibility, the electric grid's ability to respond to changing demands and supply, now stands a key resource in responding to these uncertainties while maximizing the cost-effective role of clean energy. We develop and apply a grid flexibility assessment tool to assess ASEAN's current grid flexibility using six quantitative indicators: grid reliability, electricity market access; load profile ramp capacity; quality of forecasting tools; proportion of electricity generation from natural gas; and renewable energy diversity. We find that ASEAN nations cluster into three groups: better; moderately; and the least prepared nations. We develop an analytical ramp rate calculator to quantify expected load ramps for ASEAN in an integrated ASEAN Power Grid scenario. The lack of forecasting systems and limited electricity market access represent key weaknesses and areas where dramatic improvements can become cost-effective means to increase regional grid flexibility. As ASEAN pursues renewable energy targets, regional cooperation remains essential to address identified challenges. Member nations need to increase grid flexibility capacity to adequately prepare for higher penetrations of renewable electricity and lower overall system costs. •ASEAN can meet 25% renewable energy target with minimal grid system changes.•ASEAN nations need to improve grid flexibility for renewable energy integration.•Nations are clustered into better, moderately, and least prepared groups.•Regional cooperation remains essential for higher integration of renewable energy.