An analytics approach to the FIFA ranking procedure and the World Cup final draw

This paper analyzes the procedure used by FIFA up until 2018 to rank national football teams and define by random draw the groups for the initial phase of the World Cup finals. A predictive model is calibrated to form a reference ranking to evaluate the performance of a series of simple changes to t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Annals of operations research 2020-03, Vol.286 (1-2), p.119-146
Main Authors: Cea, Sebastián, Durán, Guillermo, Guajardo, Mario, Sauré, Denis, Siebert, Joaquín, Zamorano, Gonzalo
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Business and Management
Combinatorics
Football (Professional)
Integer programming
Linear programming
Mixed integer
Operations research
Operations Research/Decision Theory
Qualitative analysis
Ranking
S.i.: Claio 2016
Soccer
Statistical analysis
Statistical models
Theory of Computation
Tournaments & championships
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Summary:This paper analyzes the procedure used by FIFA up until 2018 to rank national football teams and define by random draw the groups for the initial phase of the World Cup finals. A predictive model is calibrated to form a reference ranking to evaluate the performance of a series of simple changes to that procedure. These proposed modifications are guided by a qualitative and statistical analysis of the FIFA ranking. We then analyze the use of this ranking to determine the groups for the World Cup finals. After enumerating a series of deficiencies in the group assignments for the 2014 World Cup, a mixed integer linear programming model is developed and used to balance the difficulty levels of the groups.
ISSN:0254-5330
1572-9338
DOI:10.1007/s10479-019-03261-8