Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000-2011

• Published in: International journal of occupational and environmental health 2015-10, Vol.21 (4), p.279-284
• Main Authors: Karimlou, Masoud, Salehi, Masoud, Imani, Mehdi, Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh, Dehnad, Afsaneh, Vahabi, Nasim, Bakhtiyari, Mahmood
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Accident data; Accidents; Accidents, Occupational - statistics & numerical data; Accidents, Occupational - trends; ARIMA modeling; Autoregressive models; Autoregressive moving average; Autoregressive moving-average models; Developing Countries - statistics & numerical data; Economic analysis; Economic impact; Economic models; Forecasting; Humans; Incidence; Inspection; Iran; Models, Statistical; Occupational health; Occupational safety; Original Research Paper; Retrospective Studies; Seasons; Social security; Time Factors; Time series; Time series analysis; Work-related accidents; Workers
• ISSN: 1077-3525; 2049-3967
• DOI: 10.1179/2049396714Y.0000000108

Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box-Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q) s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1) 12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection.