Coherence, Calibration, and Expertise in Judgmental Probability Forecasting

This study investigates the relationship between judgmental probability forecasting performance, self-rated expertise, and degree of coherence with the probability laws. Self-rated expertise was found to be a good predictor of subsequent performance whereas measures of individual coherence were less...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Organizational behavior and human decision processes 1994-01, Vol.57 (1), p.1-25
Main Authors: Wright, George, Rowe, Gene, Bolger, Fergus, Gammack, John
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Biological and medical sciences
Cognition. Intelligence
Decision making
Decision making. Choice
Forecasting techniques
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Probability
Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry
Psychology. Psychophysiology
Statistical analysis
Studies
Citations: Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
cited_by cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c406t-f5db95a13357c435070b742e069abb79349bd8a6e3d245a6fa14d84396930a0f3
cites
container_end_page 25
container_issue 1
container_start_page 1
container_title Organizational behavior and human decision processes
container_volume 57
creator Wright, George
Rowe, Gene
Bolger, Fergus
Gammack, John
description This study investigates the relationship between judgmental probability forecasting performance, self-rated expertise, and degree of coherence with the probability laws. Self-rated expertise was found to be a good predictor of subsequent performance whereas measures of individual coherence were less predictive. However, recompositions of individual subjects′ marginal and conditional assessments into intersections, disjunctions, and unions proved a useful mechanical procedure since those recomposed assessments showed improved performance relative to their holistically assessed counterparts. Evidence of consistent individual differences in forecasting ability was found across item sets. These findings are discussed in relation to the elicitation of subjective probability judgments for input into decision analysis.
doi_str_mv 10.1006/obhd.1994.1001
format article
fullrecord <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_journals_223180001</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><els_id>S0749597884710016</els_id><sourcerecordid>884177</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c406t-f5db95a13357c435070b742e069abb79349bd8a6e3d245a6fa14d84396930a0f3</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp1kU1v3CAQhlHVSN0mvfZsVT3GWzBgm2O1ynek9tCe0QDjLCuvccEbdf99IRvl1sMwjPTMO8MLIZ8ZXTNK22_BbN2aKSVKyd6RFaNK1ko19D1Z0U6oWqqu_0A-prTLAGspXZGHTdhixMniZbWB0ZsIiw_TZQWTq67-zhgXn7DyU3V_cE97nBYYq58xGDB-9Muxug4RLaTFT08X5GyAMeGn13xOfl9f_drc1o8_bu423x9rK2i71IN0RklgnMvOCi5pR00nGqStAmM6xYUyrocWuWuEhHYAJlwvuGoVp0AHfk6-nHTnGP4cMC16Fw5xyiN103DW0_y6DK1PkI0hpYiDnqPfQzxqRnXxSxe_dPGrlKXh5tQQcUb7RiPirpCzftYcZJePY46XPg6-XHPML7mRervss9LX1_0gWRiHCJP16U2R952QDc9Yf8Iwe_XsMepkffkJ57Oli3bB_2_Xf90alWg</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>223180001</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Coherence, Calibration, and Expertise in Judgmental Probability Forecasting</title><source>Applied Social Sciences Index &amp; Abstracts (ASSIA)</source><source>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</source><source>ScienceDirect Journals</source><creator>Wright, George ; Rowe, Gene ; Bolger, Fergus ; Gammack, John</creator><creatorcontrib>Wright, George ; Rowe, Gene ; Bolger, Fergus ; Gammack, John</creatorcontrib><description>This study investigates the relationship between judgmental probability forecasting performance, self-rated expertise, and degree of coherence with the probability laws. Self-rated expertise was found to be a good predictor of subsequent performance whereas measures of individual coherence were less predictive. However, recompositions of individual subjects′ marginal and conditional assessments into intersections, disjunctions, and unions proved a useful mechanical procedure since those recomposed assessments showed improved performance relative to their holistically assessed counterparts. Evidence of consistent individual differences in forecasting ability was found across item sets. These findings are discussed in relation to the elicitation of subjective probability judgments for input into decision analysis.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0749-5978</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1095-9920</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1006/obhd.1994.1001</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Amsterdam: Elsevier Inc</publisher><subject>Biological and medical sciences ; Cognition. Intelligence ; Decision making ; Decision making. Choice ; Forecasting techniques ; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology ; Probability ; Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry ; Psychology. Psychophysiology ; Statistical analysis ; Studies</subject><ispartof>Organizational behavior and human decision processes, 1994-01, Vol.57 (1), p.1-25</ispartof><rights>1994 Academic Press</rights><rights>1994 INIST-CNRS</rights><rights>Copyright Elsevier Science Publishing Company, Inc. Jan 1994</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c406t-f5db95a13357c435070b742e069abb79349bd8a6e3d245a6fa14d84396930a0f3</citedby></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0749597884710016$$EHTML$$P50$$Gelsevier$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,3391,4024,27923,27924,27925,30999,33223,45813</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&amp;idt=3874523$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttp://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeejobhdp/v_3a57_3ay_3a1994_3ai_3a1_3ap_3a1-25.htm$$DView record in RePEc$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Wright, George</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rowe, Gene</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bolger, Fergus</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gammack, John</creatorcontrib><title>Coherence, Calibration, and Expertise in Judgmental Probability Forecasting</title><title>Organizational behavior and human decision processes</title><description>This study investigates the relationship between judgmental probability forecasting performance, self-rated expertise, and degree of coherence with the probability laws. Self-rated expertise was found to be a good predictor of subsequent performance whereas measures of individual coherence were less predictive. However, recompositions of individual subjects′ marginal and conditional assessments into intersections, disjunctions, and unions proved a useful mechanical procedure since those recomposed assessments showed improved performance relative to their holistically assessed counterparts. Evidence of consistent individual differences in forecasting ability was found across item sets. These findings are discussed in relation to the elicitation of subjective probability judgments for input into decision analysis.</description><subject>Biological and medical sciences</subject><subject>Cognition. Intelligence</subject><subject>Decision making</subject><subject>Decision making. Choice</subject><subject>Forecasting techniques</subject><subject>Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology</subject><subject>Probability</subject><subject>Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry</subject><subject>Psychology. Psychophysiology</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>Studies</subject><issn>0749-5978</issn><issn>1095-9920</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>1994</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>7QJ</sourceid><sourceid>8BJ</sourceid><recordid>eNp1kU1v3CAQhlHVSN0mvfZsVT3GWzBgm2O1ynek9tCe0QDjLCuvccEbdf99IRvl1sMwjPTMO8MLIZ8ZXTNK22_BbN2aKSVKyd6RFaNK1ko19D1Z0U6oWqqu_0A-prTLAGspXZGHTdhixMniZbWB0ZsIiw_TZQWTq67-zhgXn7DyU3V_cE97nBYYq58xGDB-9Muxug4RLaTFT08X5GyAMeGn13xOfl9f_drc1o8_bu423x9rK2i71IN0RklgnMvOCi5pR00nGqStAmM6xYUyrocWuWuEhHYAJlwvuGoVp0AHfk6-nHTnGP4cMC16Fw5xyiN103DW0_y6DK1PkI0hpYiDnqPfQzxqRnXxSxe_dPGrlKXh5tQQcUb7RiPirpCzftYcZJePY46XPg6-XHPML7mRervss9LX1_0gWRiHCJP16U2R952QDc9Yf8Iwe_XsMepkffkJ57Oli3bB_2_Xf90alWg</recordid><startdate>199401</startdate><enddate>199401</enddate><creator>Wright, George</creator><creator>Rowe, Gene</creator><creator>Bolger, Fergus</creator><creator>Gammack, John</creator><general>Elsevier Inc</general><general>Elsevier</general><general>Elsevier Science Publishing Company, Inc</general><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>DKI</scope><scope>X2L</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7QJ</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>JBE</scope></search><sort><creationdate>199401</creationdate><title>Coherence, Calibration, and Expertise in Judgmental Probability Forecasting</title><author>Wright, George ; Rowe, Gene ; Bolger, Fergus ; Gammack, John</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c406t-f5db95a13357c435070b742e069abb79349bd8a6e3d245a6fa14d84396930a0f3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>1994</creationdate><topic>Biological and medical sciences</topic><topic>Cognition. Intelligence</topic><topic>Decision making</topic><topic>Decision making. Choice</topic><topic>Forecasting techniques</topic><topic>Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology</topic><topic>Probability</topic><topic>Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry</topic><topic>Psychology. Psychophysiology</topic><topic>Statistical analysis</topic><topic>Studies</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Wright, George</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rowe, Gene</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bolger, Fergus</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gammack, John</creatorcontrib><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>RePEc IDEAS</collection><collection>RePEc</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Applied Social Sciences Index &amp; Abstracts (ASSIA)</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><jtitle>Organizational behavior and human decision processes</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Wright, George</au><au>Rowe, Gene</au><au>Bolger, Fergus</au><au>Gammack, John</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Coherence, Calibration, and Expertise in Judgmental Probability Forecasting</atitle><jtitle>Organizational behavior and human decision processes</jtitle><date>1994-01</date><risdate>1994</risdate><volume>57</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>1</spage><epage>25</epage><pages>1-25</pages><issn>0749-5978</issn><eissn>1095-9920</eissn><abstract>This study investigates the relationship between judgmental probability forecasting performance, self-rated expertise, and degree of coherence with the probability laws. Self-rated expertise was found to be a good predictor of subsequent performance whereas measures of individual coherence were less predictive. However, recompositions of individual subjects′ marginal and conditional assessments into intersections, disjunctions, and unions proved a useful mechanical procedure since those recomposed assessments showed improved performance relative to their holistically assessed counterparts. Evidence of consistent individual differences in forecasting ability was found across item sets. These findings are discussed in relation to the elicitation of subjective probability judgments for input into decision analysis.</abstract><cop>Amsterdam</cop><pub>Elsevier Inc</pub><doi>10.1006/obhd.1994.1001</doi><tpages>25</tpages></addata></record>
fulltext fulltext
identifier ISSN: 0749-5978
ispartof Organizational behavior and human decision processes, 1994-01, Vol.57 (1), p.1-25
issn 0749-5978
1095-9920
language eng
recordid cdi_proquest_journals_223180001
source Applied Social Sciences Index & Abstracts (ASSIA); International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS); ScienceDirect Journals
subjects Biological and medical sciences
Cognition. Intelligence
Decision making
Decision making. Choice
Forecasting techniques
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Probability
Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry
Psychology. Psychophysiology
Statistical analysis
Studies
title Coherence, Calibration, and Expertise in Judgmental Probability Forecasting
url http://sfxeu10.hosted.exlibrisgroup.com/loughborough?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-01T12%3A42%3A13IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Coherence,%20Calibration,%20and%20Expertise%20in%20Judgmental%20Probability%20Forecasting&rft.jtitle=Organizational%20behavior%20and%20human%20decision%20processes&rft.au=Wright,%20George&rft.date=1994-01&rft.volume=57&rft.issue=1&rft.spage=1&rft.epage=25&rft.pages=1-25&rft.issn=0749-5978&rft.eissn=1095-9920&rft_id=info:doi/10.1006/obhd.1994.1001&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_cross%3E884177%3C/proquest_cross%3E%3Cgrp_id%3Ecdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c406t-f5db95a13357c435070b742e069abb79349bd8a6e3d245a6fa14d84396930a0f3%3C/grp_id%3E%3Coa%3E%3C/oa%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=223180001&rft_id=info:pmid/&rfr_iscdi=true