Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters

We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to compare point predictions of gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that most SPF point predictions are quite close to the central tendencies of fore...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of business & economic statistics 2009-01, Vol.27 (1), p.30-41
Main Authors: Engelberg, Joseph, Manski, Charles F., Williams, Jared
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analytical forecasting
Central tendencies
Comparative studies
Economic forecasting
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
Inflation
Point estimates
Point forecasts
Probabilistic questions
Probabilities
Probability
Probability distributions
Probability forecasts
Professional forecasters
Statistical forecasts
Subjective probability distributions
Survey methods
Survey of professional forecasters
Time series forecasting
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Summary:We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to compare point predictions of gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that most SPF point predictions are quite close to the central tendencies of forecasters subjective distributions tend to be asymmetric, with SPF forecasters tending to report point predictions that give a more favorable view of the economy than do their subjective means/medians/modes.
ISSN:0735-0015
1537-2707
DOI:10.1198/jbes.2009.0003