The key role of forests in meeting climate targets requires science for credible mitigation

Forest-based climate mitigation may occur through conserving and enhancing the carbon sink and through reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation. Yet the inclusion of forests in international climate agreements has been complex, often considered a secondary mitigation option. In the conte...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature climate change 2017-03, Vol.7 (3), p.220-226
Main Authors: Grassi, Giacomo, House, Jo, Dentener, Frank, Federici, Sandro, den Elzen, Michel, Penman, Jim
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
704/106/47
704/106/694/682
Agreements
Anthropogenic factors
Carbon
Carbon sinks
Climate
Climate Change
Climate change mitigation
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Deforestation
Emissions control
Environment
Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice
Forests
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases
International agreements
Land use
Mitigation
Paris Agreement
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Summary:Forest-based climate mitigation may occur through conserving and enhancing the carbon sink and through reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation. Yet the inclusion of forests in international climate agreements has been complex, often considered a secondary mitigation option. In the context of the Paris Climate Agreement, countries submitted their (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions ((I)NDCs), including climate mitigation targets. Assuming full implementation of (I)NDCs, we show that land use, and forests in particular, emerge as a key component of the Paris Agreement: turning globally from a net anthropogenic source during 1990–2010 (1.3 ± 1.1 GtCO 2 e yr −1 ) to a net sink of carbon by 2030 (up to −1.1 ± 0.5 GtCO 2 e yr −1 ), and providing a quarter of emission reductions planned by countries. Realizing and tracking this mitigation potential requires more transparency in countries’ pledges and enhanced science-policy cooperation to increase confidence in numbers, including reconciling the ≍3 GtCO 2 e yr −1 difference in estimates between country reports and scientific studies. Forests are a key component of the Paris Agreement, providing about a quarter of planned emission reductions. Realizing this ambition, however, requires greater confidence in forest estimates, presenting a challenge and an opportunity for science.
ISSN:1758-678X
1758-6798
DOI:10.1038/nclimate3227