Can hydrogen fuel vehicles be a sustainable alternative on vehicle market?: Comparison of electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

• Published in: Technological forecasting & social change 2019-06, Vol.143, p.239-248
• Main Authors: Shin, Jungwoo, Hwang, Won-Sik, Choi, Hyundo
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Alternative fuel vehicle; Automobile industry; Automobiles; Climate change; Competition; Consumer preference; Consumers; Electric vehicles; Electricity; Environmental effects; Extreme values; Fuel cell vehicle; Fuel cell vehicles; Fuel cells; Fuel technology; Fuels; Greenhouse gases; Hydrogen; Hydrogen fuels; Market simulation; Markets; Multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model; Transportation
• ISSN: 0040-1625; 1873-5509
• DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.02.001

Whereas the paradigm shift in the transportation sector caused by climate change previously put electric vehicles (EVs) at the center, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) have recently emerged as a new driver for change. From an environmental perspective, EVs might not represent an effective alternative to traditional vehicles because their emissions potential depends on how the electricity is produced. HFCVs also have the potential to cause GHG emissions, depending on how the hydrogen is produced. This study considers EVs and HFCVs to be eco-friendly alternatives, and analyzes consumer preferences for the vehicles and their environmental effects, taking into account future competition within the automobile market. For analysis, we divided consumers into drivers and non-drivers and used a conjoint survey and mixed multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model. Our results indicate that both drivers and non-drivers preferred EVs over HFCVs in terms of choice, but the preference structure differed between the driver and non-driver groups in terms of usage levels. To examine the potential environmental effects of EVs and HFCVs, we conducted a scenario analysis. The results will serve as base research material for formulating HFCV-related policies in the light of the probable future outcomes of competition between EVs and HFCVs. •We analyze consumer preferences of electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs).•We also conduct a scenario analysis to examine their environmental impacts.•Korean consumers prefer electric vehicles to HFCVs.•AFV policies lead to average annual reduction of 0.039 kg per driver in terms of PM10.•Expanding infrastructure was found to be the more cost-efficient option.