Estimating thermal response metrics for North American freshwater fish using Bayesian phylogenetic regression

Physiological performance in fish peaks within a well-defined range of temperatures, which is distinct for each species. Species-specific thermal responses for growth, survival, and reproduction are most commonly quantified directly through laboratory experiment or field observation, with a focus on...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Canadian journal of fisheries and aquatic sciences 2018-11, Vol.75 (11), p.1878-1885
Main Authors: Hasnain, Sarah S, Escobar, Michael D, Shuter, Brian J
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayesian analysis
Bayesian theory
Biogeny
Cyprinidae
Estimates
Fish
Fish eggs
Fish reproduction
Fishery research
Freshwater
Freshwater fish
Freshwater fishes
Growth
Heat tolerance (Biology)
Laboratory experimentation
Larvae
Larval stage
Mathematical models
Modelling
Phylogenetics
Phylogeny
Regression
Regression analysis
Reliability
Reproduction
Reproduction (biology)
Salmonidae
Spawning
Speciation
Species
Species identification
Statistical analysis
Statistical methods
Survival
Taxonomy
Temperature
Temperature effects
Temperature preferences
Temperature tolerance
Thermal response
Water
Water temperature
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Summary:Physiological performance in fish peaks within a well-defined range of temperatures, which is distinct for each species. Species-specific thermal responses for growth, survival, and reproduction are most commonly quantified directly through laboratory experiment or field observation, with a focus on six specific metrics: optimum growth temperature and final temperature preferendum (growth), upper incipient lethal temperature and critical thermal maximum (survival), and optimum spawning temperature and optimum egg development temperature (reproduction). These values remain unknown for many North American freshwater fish species. In this paper, we present a new statistical method (Bayesian phylogenetic regression) that uses relationships between these metrics and phenetic relatedness to estimate unknown metric values. The reliability of these estimates was compared with those derived from models incorporating taxonomic family and models without any taxonomic information. Overall, incorporating taxonomic family relatedness improved estimation accuracy across all metrics. For Salmonidae and Cyprinidae, estimates derived from Bayesian phylogenetic regression typically had the highest expected reliability. We used our methods to generate 274 estimates of unknown metric values for over 100 North American freshwater fish species.
ISSN:0706-652X
1205-7533
DOI:10.1139/cjfas-2017-0278