The impacts of the Brazilian NDC and their contribution to the Paris agreement on climate change

This paper measures the economic impacts of Brazil's climate mitigation strategies contained in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). To do so, we employ the computable general equilibrium MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis model and simulate alternative carbon pricing scenario...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environment and development economics 2019-08, Vol.24 (4), p.395-412
Main Authors: Gurgel, Angelo C., Paltsev, Sergey, Breviglieri, Gustavo Velloso
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agreements
Agricultural economics
Agricultural management
Agricultural production
Agriculture
Alternative energy sources
Biodiesel fuels
Biofuels
Biomass
Carbon
Climate change
Climate change mitigation
Climate policy
Coal
Communication
Computer simulation
Costs
Deforestation
Developing countries
Economic analysis
Economic impact
Economic models
Economics
Emissions control
Emissions trading
Energy efficiency
Energy resources
Environmental policy
Environmental tax
Equilibrium
Forecasting
Forestry
Gases
GDP
Global economy
Greenhouse effect
Gross Domestic Product
Industrial plant emissions
Investigations
Land
Land use
LDCs
Markets
Natural gas
Paris Agreement
Policy analysis
Pricing
Renewable energy
Renewable energy sources
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Steel production
Taxes
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Summary:This paper measures the economic impacts of Brazil's climate mitigation strategies contained in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). To do so, we employ the computable general equilibrium MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis model and simulate alternative carbon pricing scenarios (sectoral versus economy-wide carbon markets), set to achieve the country's overall emissions targets announced under the Paris Agreement. The results show relatively cheap emissions reductions from land-use changes and agriculture in the short run: the cost of the Brazilian NDC is predicted to be only 0.7 per cent of GDP in 2030. Further efforts to reduce carbon emissions beyond 2030 would require policy changes, since all the potential emissions reductions from deforestation would be finished and the capacity to expand renewable energy sources would be constrained. In this case, an economy-wide carbon pricing system would help substantially to avoid higher compliance costs.
ISSN:1355-770X
1469-4395
DOI:10.1017/S1355770X1900007X