A Novel Computational Model of the Wheat Global Market with an Application to the 2010 Russian Federation Case

In this paper, we build a computational model for the analysis of international wheat spot price formation, its dynamics and the dynamics of quantities traded internationally. The model has been calibrated using FAOSTAT data to evaluate its in-sample predictive power. The model is able to generate w...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of artificial societies and social simulation 2019-06, Vol.22 (3)
Main Authors: Giulioni, Gianfranco, Di Giuseppe, Edmondo, Toscano, Piero, Miglietta, Francesco, Pasqui, Massimiliano
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bans
Federations
Grain
International markets
Markets
Mathematical models
Power
Predictions
Prices
Wheat
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Summary:In this paper, we build a computational model for the analysis of international wheat spot price formation, its dynamics and the dynamics of quantities traded internationally. The model has been calibrated using FAOSTAT data to evaluate its in-sample predictive power. The model is able to generate wheat prices in twelve international markets and traded wheat quantities in twenty-four world regions. The time span considered is from 1992 to 2013. In our study, particular attention was paid to the impact of the Russian Federation's 2010 grain export ban on wheat price and quantities traded internationally. Among other results, we found that the average weighted world wheat price in 2013 would have been 3.55% lower than the observed one if the Russian Federation had not imposed the export ban in 2010.
ISSN:1460-7425
1460-7425
DOI:10.18564/jasss.4063