The Timeline of Elections: A Comparative Perspective

• Published in: American journal of political science 2016-01, Vol.60 (1), p.219-233
• Main Authors: Jennings, Will, Wlezien, Christopher
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Candidates; Election results; Elections; Electoral systems; Parliamentary system; Political campaigns; Political candidates; Political elections; Political institutions; Political parties; Political systems; Polls; Polls & surveys; Presidential elections; Public opinion surveys; State elections; Voter behavior; Voting
• ISSN: 0092-5853; 1540-5907
• DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12189

How do voter preferences come into focus over the electoral cycle in different countries? Do they evolve in patterned ways? Does the evolution vary across countries? This article addresses these issues. We consider differences in political institutions and how they might impact voter preferences over the course of the election cycle. We then outline an empirical analysis relating support for parties or candidates in pre-election polls to their final vote. The analysis relies on over 26,000 vote intention polls in 45 countries since 1942, covering 312 discrete electoral cycles. Our results indicate that early polls contain substantial information about the final result but that they become increasingly informative over the election cycle. Although the degree to which this is true varies across countries in important and understandable ways given differences in political institutions, the pattern is strikingly general.