Future oil extraction in Ecuador using a Hubbert approach

Hubbert based models to project future oil extraction in Ecuador were developed. Two values of ultimate recoverable resources (URR) (7860–10,700 million barrels (MMbbl)) are applied to 16 models, considering symmetric and asymmetric Hubbert models and one and two cycles under top-down and bottom-up...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Energy (Oxford) 2019-09, Vol.182, p.520-534
Main Authors: Espinoza, Vicente Sebastian, Fontalvo, Javier, Martí-Herrero, Jaime, Ramírez, Paola, Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Dependence
Economic conditions
Economic models
Ecuador
Energy efficiency
Energy policy
Energy security
Hubbert curves
Oil
Oil extraction
Peak oil
Security
URR
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Summary:Hubbert based models to project future oil extraction in Ecuador were developed. Two values of ultimate recoverable resources (URR) (7860–10,700 million barrels (MMbbl)) are applied to 16 models, considering symmetric and asymmetric Hubbert models and one and two cycles under top-down and bottom-up approaches. Models are discussed based on the best fit to historical data, and year and value of maximum extraction. The peak oil extraction obtained ranges between 196 and 215 MMbbl and would be reached in the years 2014–2025. An analysis of the implications of extraction models in a Business as Usual and Alternative oil demand scenarios up to 2035 was performed. Ecuador could become a net oil importer between 2024 and 2035, depending on the model and demand scenario. Economic oil trade balance could be seriously affected, decreasing from a current positive value of around 2 billion USD to incur deficits of 0.6–16.7 billion USD in 2035. Current and future oil dependence for Ecuador would increase vulnerability and compromise the country in terms of energy security and trade balance. It is critical for Ecuador to consider more ambitious policies focused on energy efficiency, renewables and diversification of the productive structure over the next few years. •Future oil extraction in Ecuador is estimated using different models and approaches.•Top-down and bottom-up approaches shows different strengths and weakness.•Next decade Ecuador will stop being an oil exporter country in the regular scenario.•We analyse the future oil supply and demand implications on Ecuadorian energy sector.•Dependence on oil for energy and income source would compromise Ecuador's economy.
ISSN:0360-5442
1873-6785
DOI:10.1016/j.energy.2019.06.061