The Economic Impacts of Avian Influenza on World Poultry Trade and the U.S. Poultry Industry: A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis

Simulation results showed that simultaneous outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Asia, the United States, Brazil, and selected European countries will have significant impacts on world poultry trade. Assuming demand for chicken meat is constant, the global export price is simulat...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of agricultural and applied economics 2007-08, Vol.39 (2), p.313-323
Main Authors: Djunaidi, Harjanto, Djunaidi, Andrew C.M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agriculture
Avian flu
avian influenza
Bird migration
birds flu
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
chicken meat
commodity prices
consumer demand
Consumption
disease outbreaks
Disease prevention
Domestication
econometric models
Economic impact
economic impacts
Epidemics
Equilibrium
equilibrium theory
Exports
F14
F17
F47
geographical variation
H5N1
highly pathogenic avian influenza
HPAI disease
Influenza A virus
International trade
Invited Paper Sessions
Mathematical models
Pandemics
Poultry
poultry industry
poultry products
Q11
Q17
Q18
Session Title: The Impacts of Avian Influenza on Poultry Production and Consumption Papers
Spatial analysis
spatial equilibrium
U.S. poultry industry
vertebrate viruses
world chicken trade
world markets
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Summary:Simulation results showed that simultaneous outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Asia, the United States, Brazil, and selected European countries will have significant impacts on world poultry trade. Assuming demand for chicken meat is constant, the global export price is simulated to increase by 9.63%. HPAI outbreaks in the United States, Economic Union, and Brazil will have a greater impact on export price than in any other possible three-region case. Outbreaks in the United States and Brazil would still lead to major impacts on world poultry trade, confirming large country effects.
ISSN:1074-0708
2056-7405
1074-0708
DOI:10.1017/S1074070800023014