Perturbation methods for Markov-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models

Markov-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (MSDSGE) modeling has become a growing body of literature on economic and policy issues related to structural shifts. This paper develops a general perturbation methodology for constructing high-order approximations to the solutions of MSDSGE m...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Quantitative economics 2016-07, Vol.7 (2), p.637-669
Main Authors: Foerster, Andrew, Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F, Waggoner, Daniel F, Zha, Tao
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accuracy
Approximation
Central banks
Econometrics
Economic models
Economics
Equilibrium
Gröbner bases
high‐order expansion
Markov analysis
Methods
naive perturbation
nonlinearity
Partition
Partition principle
Policy analysis
quadratic polynomial system
Taylor series
time‐varying coefficients
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Summary:Markov-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (MSDSGE) modeling has become a growing body of literature on economic and policy issues related to structural shifts. This paper develops a general perturbation methodology for constructing high-order approximations to the solutions of MSDSGE models. Our new method—“the partition perturbation method”—partitions the Markov-switching parameter space to keep a maximum number of time-varying parameters from perturbation. For this method to work in practice, we show how to reduce the potentially intractable problem of solving MSDSGE models to the manageable problem of solving a system of quadratic polynomial equations. This approach allows us to first obtain all the solutions and then determine how many of them are stable. We illustrate the tractability of our methodology through two revealing examples.
ISSN:1759-7331
1759-7323
1759-7331
DOI:10.3982/QE596