Consistent Extinction Risk Assessment under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Identifying species at risk of extinction is essential for effective conservation priority‐setting in the face of accelerating biodiversity loss. However, the levels of risk that lead to endangered or threatened listing decisions under the United States Endangered Species Act (ESA) are not well defi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Conservation letters 2017-05, Vol.10 (3), p.328-336
Main Authors: Boyd, Charlotte, DeMaster, Douglas P., Waples, Robin S., Ward, Eric J., Taylor, Barbara L.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayesian analysis
Bayesian state‐space population model
Biodiversity
Biodiversity loss
Caretta caretta
conservation prioritization
Demography
Endangered & extinct species
Endangered species
Extinction
Fisheries
listing criteria
Population
population viability analysis
risk analysis
Risk assessment
Science
Species extinction
Threatened species
Wildlife conservation
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Summary:Identifying species at risk of extinction is essential for effective conservation priority‐setting in the face of accelerating biodiversity loss. However, the levels of risk that lead to endangered or threatened listing decisions under the United States Endangered Species Act (ESA) are not well defined. We used a Bayesian population modeling approach to estimate levels of risk consistently for 14 marine species previously assessed under the ESA. For each species, we assessed the risks of declining below various abundance thresholds over various time horizons. We found that high risks of declining below 250 mature individuals within five generations matched well with ESA endangered status, while number of populations was useful for distinguishing between threatened and “not warranted” species. The risk assessment framework developed here could enable more consistent, predictable, and transparent ESA status assessments in the future.
ISSN:1755-263X
1755-263X
DOI:10.1111/conl.12269