Energy transition, CO2 mitigation, and air pollutant emission reduction: scenario analysis from IPAC model

• Published in: Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2019-12, Vol.99 (3), p.1277-1293
• Main Authors: Jiang, Kejun, Chen, Sha, He, Chenmin, Liu, Jia, Kuo, Sun, Hong, Li, Zhu, Songli, Pianpian, Xiang
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agreements; Air pollution; Air pollution control; Black carbon; Carbon dioxide; Carbon dioxide emissions; Civil Engineering; Coal; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Emission analysis; Emissions control; Energy; Energy policy; Energy security; Energy transition; Environmental Management; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Hydrogeology; Long term; Mercury; Mitigation; Natural Hazards; Nitrogen compounds; Nitrogen oxides; Nuclear energy; Original Paper; Paris Agreement; Particulate matter; Pollutants; Pollution control; Presidents; Renewable energy; Renewable resources; Resource management; Security; Sulfur dioxide
• ISSN: 0921-030X; 1573-0840
• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03796-w

In China, Energy transition was proposed in the “12th Five-Year Plan” and gained resilient support by “Energy Revolution” announced by President Xi Jinping in 2014. In Paris Agreement, there are targets set up for 2100 to be well below 2 °C, with ambitious target on 1.5 °C. China signed the agreement and will support the global target. In the meantime, large-scale actions were initiated in 2013 by the national action plan on air pollution control for the period from 2013 to 2017. None of these strategies has clear long-term target. In our studies, energy transition will be decided by the long-term target of CO 2 emission reduction, air pollutant reduction, and energy security. This paper will present the analysis from IPAC model, by setting up reduction target for CO 2 emission under the global 2 °C and 1.5 °C target. Energy transition, CO 2 emission, and air pollutant reduction will be discussed based on these targets. For air pollutants, SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , black carbon, and mercury will be included. From the results, there will be a significant energy transition by large-scale use of renewable energy, nuclear and the share of coal will be reduced to less than 20% in 2050 from 66% in 2015. Energy transition will also contribute to a drastic reduction in air pollutants.