Evaluation of temperature-based machine learning and empirical models for predicting daily global solar radiation

• Published in: Energy conversion and management 2019-10, Vol.198, p.111780, Article 111780
• Main Authors: Feng, Yu, Gong, Daozhi, Zhang, Qingwen, Jiang, Shouzheng, Zhao, Lu, Cui, Ningbo
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air temperature; Algorithms; Artificial intelligence; Artificial neural networks; Empirical models; Energy management; Evolutionary algorithms; Forecast; Genetic algorithms; Global solar radiation; Learning algorithms; Machine learning; Machine learning models; Neural networks; Predictions; Solar energy; Solar radiation; Temperate continental regions; Wavelet analysis; Weather forecasting
• ISSN: 0196-8904; 1879-2227
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2019.111780

•Four machine learning models and four empirical models for predicting global solar radiation were evaluated.•Machine learning models all showed better estimates than empirical models.•The hybrid mind evolutionary algorithm and artificial neural network had the best accuracy.•The proposed hybrid model can be recommended to predict global solar radiation in temperate continental regions. Accurate global solar radiation data are fundamental information for the allocation and design of solar energy systems. The current study compared different machine learning and empirical models for global solar radiation prediction only using air temperature as inputs. Four machine learning models, e.g., hybrid mind evolutionary algorithm and artificial neural network model, original artificial neural network, random forests and wavelet neural network, as well as four empirical temperature-based models (Hargreaves-Samani model, Bristow-Campbell model, Jahani model, and Fan model) were applied for prediction of daily global solar radiation in temperate continental regions of China. The results indicated the hybrid mind evolutionary algorithm and artificial neural network model provided better estimations, compared with the existing machine learning and empirical models. Thus, the temperature-based hybrid model is highly recommended to predict global solar radiation in temperate continental regions of China when only air temperature data are available. Combining the hybrid model with future air temperature forecasts, we can get the accurate information of future solar radiation, which is of great importance to management and operation of solar energy systems.