Framework for quantifying population responses to disturbance reveals that coastal birds are highly resilient to hurricanes

Changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather may introduce new threats to species that are already under stress from gradual habitat loss and climate change. We provide a probabilistic framework that quantifies potential threats by applying concepts from ecological resilience to single p...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Ecology letters 2019-12, Vol.22 (12), p.2039-2048
Main Authors: Field, Christopher R., Ruskin, Katharine J., Cohen, Jonathan B., Hodgman, Thomas P., Kovach, Adrienne I., Olsen, Brian J., Shriver, W. Gregory, Elphick, Chris S., Mordecai, Erin
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
Bayesian population viability analysis
Birds
Climate Change
coastal birds
Cyclonic Storms
Disturbance
Disturbances
Ecology
Ecosystem
Environmental changes
Extreme weather
Habitat loss
High resistance
Hurricanes
Introduced species
Oil spills
Populations
Projection model
Resilience
stochastic population modelling
Weather
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Summary:Changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather may introduce new threats to species that are already under stress from gradual habitat loss and climate change. We provide a probabilistic framework that quantifies potential threats by applying concepts from ecological resilience to single populations. Our approach uses computation to compare disturbance–impacted projections to a population's normal range of variation, quantifying the full range of potential impacts. We illustrate this framework with projection models for coastal birds, which are commonly depicted as vulnerable to disturbances, especially hurricanes and oil spills. We found that populations of coastal specialists are resilient to extreme disturbances, with high resistance to the effects of short‐term reductions in vital rates and recovery within 20 years. Applying the general framework presented here across disturbance‐prone species and ecosystems would improve understanding of population resilience and generate specific projections of resilience that are needed for effective conservation planning.
ISSN:1461-023X
1461-0248
DOI:10.1111/ele.13384