A directional model of candidate evaluations in the 2016 presidential election

The 2016 U.S. presidential election provides an interesting setting for testing the directional theory of issue voting. But, when modeled using the standard approach, using the seven-point issue scales in the 2016 ANES, it is not clear whether the directional model provides any additional leverage o...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Electoral studies 2019-10, Vol.61, p.102029, Article 102029
Main Author: Jacoby, William G.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Candidates
Election results
Elections
Leverage
Presidential candidates
Presidential elections
Proximity
Voters
Voting
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Summary:The 2016 U.S. presidential election provides an interesting setting for testing the directional theory of issue voting. But, when modeled using the standard approach, using the seven-point issue scales in the 2016 ANES, it is not clear whether the directional model provides any additional leverage over the more traditional proximity model. In order to get around this impasse, I examine candidate evaluations rather than issue scales. Doing so enables a direct test of directional theory against proximity theory. The empirical results show that the proximity model does not outperform the directional model. Instead, the latter outperforms the former because the directional model produces not only a succinct graphical representation of the electorate's candidate evaluations but also an explanation for the relative spatial positions of the candidates.
ISSN:0261-3794
1873-6890
DOI:10.1016/j.electstud.2019.03.005