Two Steps Forward, One Step Back: Chinese State Reactions to Labour Unrest

What impact is the current rise in workplace conflict having on governance in China? This article argues that, over time, protests are driving the state in two directions at once: towards greater repression and greater responsiveness. Using an original dataset of strikes, protests and riots by Chine...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The China quarterly (London) 2019-12, Vol.240, p.855-879
Main Author: Elfstrom, Manfred
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Activism
Arbitration
Authoritarianism
Chinese languages
Collective bargaining
Courts
Demonstrations & protests
Empowerment
Expenditures
Feedback
Governance
Labor unions
Local elections
Mediation
Migrant workers
NGOs
Nongovernmental organizations
Oppression
Organizational conflict
Police
Political development
Political leadership
Political parties
Politics
Responsiveness
Riots
Statistics
Strikes
Union leadership
Workers
Workplaces
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Summary:What impact is the current rise in workplace conflict having on governance in China? This article argues that, over time, protests are driving the state in two directions at once: towards greater repression and greater responsiveness. Using an original dataset of strikes, protests and riots by Chinese workers between 2003 and 2012, along with government budgetary and judicial statistics, the article demonstrates that significant, positive correlations exist at the provincial level between increased unrest on the one hand and both increased spending on the People's Armed Police (repression) and increasing numbers of pro-worker and split decisions in mediation, arbitration and court cases (responsiveness) on the other. Feedback effects exist with regard to responsiveness, though: more cases in which workers win something in turn seem to spur greater unrest. The article closes by noting the changes since Xi Jinping took office and examining the implications of the findings for China's political development. 劳工抗争加剧对中国治理有什么影响？这篇文章认为抗议活动同时从两个截然相反的方向影响国家治理: 一方面是导致更多的镇压，另一方面导致政府更多回应。根据我创建的 2003 至 2012 年中国工人罢工、抗议和骚乱的数据库以及政府预算和司法判决方面的数据, 我发现省一级劳资纠纷的增长，一方面和武装警察开支（镇压）有显著正相关关系, 另一方面和在调解、仲裁及法院案件中有利于工人的判决（回应）也有显著正相关关系。但是政府回应会产生刺激抗议的反馈效应: 如果工人在案件中赢得更多反过来似乎会导致更多的抗议。文章的结论探讨习近平上台之后的变化和我的发现对中国政治发展的意义。
ISSN:0305-7410
1468-2648
DOI:10.1017/S0305741019000067