The Delphi Technique: An Empirical Evaluation of the Optimal Number of Rounds

The widespread use of the Delphi technique of decision making has led to many variations in format implementation by practioners and researchers. The classic Delphi typically includes four rounds of questionnaires and feedback. This study attempted to establish empirically the point of stability in...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Group & organization management 1986-03, Vol.11 (1-2), p.120-128
Main Authors: Erffmeyer, Robert C., Erffmeyer, Elizabeth S., Lane, Irving M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Decision making
Delphi method
Feedback
Moon
Questionnaires
Ratings & rankings
Studies
Techniques
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Summary:The widespread use of the Delphi technique of decision making has led to many variations in format implementation by practioners and researchers. The classic Delphi typically includes four rounds of questionnaires and feedback. This study attempted to establish empirically the point of stability in a six-round Delphi. The results indicated that Delphi groups reached stability in their decision making after the fourth iteration, thereby providing empirical support for the length of the classic Delphi.
ISSN:1059-6011
0364-1082
1552-3993
DOI:10.1177/105960118601100110