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Larger Future Intensification of Rainfall in the West African Sahel in a Convection‐Permitting Model
Monsoon rainfall in West Africa mostly comes from mesoscale convective systems, which are not well represented by standard convection‐parameterized regional climate models (RCMs). We use a 4.5 km resolution convection‐permitting RCM (CP4A) which has a good representation of these processes in the Sa...
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| Published in: | Geophysical research letters 2019-11, Vol.46 (22), p.13299-13307 |
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| cites | cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c3441-c9750473529749b2ebd63536fc3b1ca6bf9586e22ef7e4f8dd1f7b950b17afb13 |
| container_end_page | 13307 |
| container_issue | 22 |
| container_start_page | 13299 |
| container_title | Geophysical research letters |
| container_volume | 46 |
| creator | Berthou, S. Kendon, E. J. Rowell, D. P. Roberts, M. J. Tucker, S. Stratton, R. A. |
| description | Monsoon rainfall in West Africa mostly comes from mesoscale convective systems, which are not well represented by standard convection‐parameterized regional climate models (RCMs). We use a 4.5 km resolution convection‐permitting RCM (CP4A) which has a good representation of these processes in the Sahel. By comparing the climate change signals of CP4A and a standard RCM (R25), we find that changes in mean rainfall and wet‐day frequency are linearly related. However, rainfall intensity changes are independent. Intensification of rainfall is larger in CP4A and happens in regions of both increasing and decreasing mean rainfall. Rainfall from extreme events increases by a factor of 5 to 10 in CP4A, compared to 2 to 3 in R25. CP4A also shows larger changes in intraseasonal rainfall variability, dry spells, and short and long duration extreme rainfall than R25, all of which are relevant for hydrology and agriculture.
Key Points
Mean rainfall changes are similar in a convection‐permitting compared to a parameterized model, but intensification of rainfall is stronger
Rainfall from extreme events increases by a factor of 5 to 10 in a convection‐permitting model, against 2 to 3 in a parameterized model
The convection‐permitting model shows a larger amplitude of change for 5 out of 6 agriculture and hydrology relevant metrics in the Sahel |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1029/2019GL083544 |
| format | article |
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Key Points
Mean rainfall changes are similar in a convection‐permitting compared to a parameterized model, but intensification of rainfall is stronger
Rainfall from extreme events increases by a factor of 5 to 10 in a convection‐permitting model, against 2 to 3 in a parameterized model
The convection‐permitting model shows a larger amplitude of change for 5 out of 6 agriculture and hydrology relevant metrics in the Sahel</description><identifier>ISSN: 0094-8276</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1944-8007</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1029/2019GL083544</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Washington: John Wiley & Sons, Inc</publisher><subject>Agriculture ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Convection ; convection‐permitting model ; Dry spells ; Duration ; extreme rainfall ; Extreme weather ; Hydrology ; Mesoscale convective systems ; Monsoon rainfall ; Rain ; Rainfall ; rainfall intensification ; Rainfall intensity ; Rainfall variability ; Regional climate models ; Regional climates ; Signal processing ; West Africa</subject><ispartof>Geophysical research letters, 2019-11, Vol.46 (22), p.13299-13307</ispartof><rights>2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3441-c9750473529749b2ebd63536fc3b1ca6bf9586e22ef7e4f8dd1f7b950b17afb13</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3441-c9750473529749b2ebd63536fc3b1ca6bf9586e22ef7e4f8dd1f7b950b17afb13</cites><orcidid>0000-0001-6128-6979 ; 0000-0002-6727-1732 ; 0000-0001-5795-6247 ; 0000-0002-9164-0841</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029%2F2019GL083544$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029%2F2019GL083544$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,11514,27924,27925,46468,46892</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Berthou, S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kendon, E. J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rowell, D. P.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Roberts, M. J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tucker, S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Stratton, R. A.</creatorcontrib><title>Larger Future Intensification of Rainfall in the West African Sahel in a Convection‐Permitting Model</title><title>Geophysical research letters</title><description>Monsoon rainfall in West Africa mostly comes from mesoscale convective systems, which are not well represented by standard convection‐parameterized regional climate models (RCMs). We use a 4.5 km resolution convection‐permitting RCM (CP4A) which has a good representation of these processes in the Sahel. By comparing the climate change signals of CP4A and a standard RCM (R25), we find that changes in mean rainfall and wet‐day frequency are linearly related. However, rainfall intensity changes are independent. Intensification of rainfall is larger in CP4A and happens in regions of both increasing and decreasing mean rainfall. Rainfall from extreme events increases by a factor of 5 to 10 in CP4A, compared to 2 to 3 in R25. CP4A also shows larger changes in intraseasonal rainfall variability, dry spells, and short and long duration extreme rainfall than R25, all of which are relevant for hydrology and agriculture.
Key Points
Mean rainfall changes are similar in a convection‐permitting compared to a parameterized model, but intensification of rainfall is stronger
Rainfall from extreme events increases by a factor of 5 to 10 in a convection‐permitting model, against 2 to 3 in a parameterized model
The convection‐permitting model shows a larger amplitude of change for 5 out of 6 agriculture and hydrology relevant metrics in the Sahel</description><subject>Agriculture</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Convection</subject><subject>convection‐permitting model</subject><subject>Dry spells</subject><subject>Duration</subject><subject>extreme rainfall</subject><subject>Extreme weather</subject><subject>Hydrology</subject><subject>Mesoscale convective systems</subject><subject>Monsoon rainfall</subject><subject>Rain</subject><subject>Rainfall</subject><subject>rainfall intensification</subject><subject>Rainfall intensity</subject><subject>Rainfall variability</subject><subject>Regional climate models</subject><subject>Regional climates</subject><subject>Signal processing</subject><subject>West Africa</subject><issn>0094-8276</issn><issn>1944-8007</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2019</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>24P</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kE1OwzAQRi0EEqWw4wCW2BIY_ySOl1VFS6UgUAGxjJzEbl2lTnESUHccgTNyElzKghWrGWnevBl9CJ0TuCJA5TUFIqcZpCzm_AANiOQ8SgHEIRoAyNBTkRyjk7ZdAQADRgbIZMovtMeTvuu9xjPXaddaY0vV2cbhxuC5ss6ousbW4W6p8YtuOzwyPiAOP6ql_pkoPG7cmy53W18fnw_ar23XWbfAd02l61N0FBytPvutQ_Q8uXka30bZ_XQ2HmVRyTgnUSlFDFywmErBZUF1USUsZokpWUFKlRRGxmmiKdVGaG7SqiJGFDKGgghlCsKG6GLv3fjmtQ-f5qum9y6czCkLUpokLA3U5Z4qfdO2Xpt84-1a-W1OIN8lmf9NMuB0j7_bWm__ZfPpPItlCoR9A7GDdTc</recordid><startdate>20191128</startdate><enddate>20191128</enddate><creator>Berthou, S.</creator><creator>Kendon, E. 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J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rowell, D. P.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Roberts, M. J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tucker, S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Stratton, R. 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J.</au><au>Rowell, D. P.</au><au>Roberts, M. J.</au><au>Tucker, S.</au><au>Stratton, R. A.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Larger Future Intensification of Rainfall in the West African Sahel in a Convection‐Permitting Model</atitle><jtitle>Geophysical research letters</jtitle><date>2019-11-28</date><risdate>2019</risdate><volume>46</volume><issue>22</issue><spage>13299</spage><epage>13307</epage><pages>13299-13307</pages><issn>0094-8276</issn><eissn>1944-8007</eissn><abstract>Monsoon rainfall in West Africa mostly comes from mesoscale convective systems, which are not well represented by standard convection‐parameterized regional climate models (RCMs). We use a 4.5 km resolution convection‐permitting RCM (CP4A) which has a good representation of these processes in the Sahel. By comparing the climate change signals of CP4A and a standard RCM (R25), we find that changes in mean rainfall and wet‐day frequency are linearly related. However, rainfall intensity changes are independent. Intensification of rainfall is larger in CP4A and happens in regions of both increasing and decreasing mean rainfall. Rainfall from extreme events increases by a factor of 5 to 10 in CP4A, compared to 2 to 3 in R25. CP4A also shows larger changes in intraseasonal rainfall variability, dry spells, and short and long duration extreme rainfall than R25, all of which are relevant for hydrology and agriculture.
Key Points
Mean rainfall changes are similar in a convection‐permitting compared to a parameterized model, but intensification of rainfall is stronger
Rainfall from extreme events increases by a factor of 5 to 10 in a convection‐permitting model, against 2 to 3 in a parameterized model
The convection‐permitting model shows a larger amplitude of change for 5 out of 6 agriculture and hydrology relevant metrics in the Sahel</abstract><cop>Washington</cop><pub>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</pub><doi>10.1029/2019GL083544</doi><tpages>9</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6128-6979</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6727-1732</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5795-6247</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9164-0841</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | Geophysical research letters, 2019-11, Vol.46 (22), p.13299-13307 |
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| language | eng |
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| source | Wiley-Blackwell AGU Digital Library |
| subjects | Agriculture Climate change Climate models Convection convection‐permitting model Dry spells Duration extreme rainfall Extreme weather Hydrology Mesoscale convective systems Monsoon rainfall Rain Rainfall rainfall intensification Rainfall intensity Rainfall variability Regional climate models Regional climates Signal processing West Africa |
| title | Larger Future Intensification of Rainfall in the West African Sahel in a Convection‐Permitting Model |
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