Forecasting performance of corn and soybean harvest futures contracts

In contrast to earlier periods, post 1973 spring prices of December corn and November soybean futures contracts have not been good forecasts of harvest price. Regression analysis of price forecast variance before and after 1973 indicates that the decline in forecasting accuracy is related to increas...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:American journal of agricultural economics 1993-05, Vol.75 (2), p.399-407
Main Authors: Kenyon, David, Jones, Eluned, McGuirk, M. Anya
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural economics
Agricultural production
Analytical forecasting
Corn
Corn prices
Crop harvesting
Economic models
forecasting
forward pricing
futures
Futures contracts
G130
Loan rates
MAIS
MAIZ
MARCHE A TERME
Market prices
Modeling
OPERACIONES A PLAZO
Planting seasons
PRECIOS DE MERCADO
Predictions
Prices
PRIX DE MARCHE
Q110
SOJA
Soybeans
TECHNIQUE DE PREVISION
TECNICAS DE PREDICCION
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Summary:In contrast to earlier periods, post 1973 spring prices of December corn and November soybean futures contracts have not been good forecasts of harvest price. Regression analysis of price forecast variance before and after 1973 indicates that the decline in forecasting accuracy is related to increased yield forecast errors and to reduced interference of government loan rates on market price determination. Since these futures are poor forecasts, producers should not rely on futures prices alone to allocate resources at planting time unless they simultaneously forward price.
ISSN:0002-9092
1467-8276
DOI:10.2307/1242924