The hot hand in professional darts

We investigate the hot hand hypothesis in professional darts in a nearly ideal setting with minimal to no interaction between players. Considering almost 1 year of tournament data, corresponding to 167492 dart throws in total, we use state space models to investigate serial dependence in throwing pe...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, Statistics in society Statistics in society, 2020-02, Vol.183 (2), p.565-580
Main Authors: Ötting, Marius, Langrock, Roland, Deutscher, Christian, Leos‐Barajas, Vianey
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Hidden Markov model
Hot hand
Regression analysis
Sports statistics
State space model
State space models
Statistical analysis
Throwing
Time series
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Summary:We investigate the hot hand hypothesis in professional darts in a nearly ideal setting with minimal to no interaction between players. Considering almost 1 year of tournament data, corresponding to 167492 dart throws in total, we use state space models to investigate serial dependence in throwing performance. In our models, a latent state process serves as a proxy for a player's underlying form, and we use auto-regressive processes to model how this process evolves over time. Our results regarding the persistence of the latent process indicate a weak hot hand effect, but the evidence is inconclusive.
ISSN:1467-985X
0964-1998
1467-985X
DOI:10.1111/rssa.12527