U.S. outlook for 2020

Consumption has been close to our expectation; housing was a little below forecast but was offset by stronger government spending; improvement in the trade deficit was offset by less inventory accumulation. Government spending will grow, but much more slowly than the past year as the impact of the 2...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Indiana business review 2019-12, Vol.94 (4), p.1-6
Main Author: Witte, Willard E
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Consumer spending
Economic conditions
Economic forecasts
Government spending
Interest rates
Job creation
Labor force
Labor market
Unemployment
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Summary:Consumption has been close to our expectation; housing was a little below forecast but was offset by stronger government spending; improvement in the trade deficit was offset by less inventory accumulation. Government spending will grow, but much more slowly than the past year as the impact of the 2018 budget deal ends. * Ue Fed should hold short-term interest rates stable, but could be bullied by pressure from politicians and from Wall Street to lower rates. A short list: * The Trump administration imposes a large dose of uncertainty to the outlook, which is compounded in an election year and by the impeachment inquiry. ^is uncertainty raises downside risk. * The trade war situation has worsened over the past year, producing a negative impact in areas such as business investment.
ISSN:0019-6541