Predictive Accuracy of the Static-99R and Static-2002R Risk Tools for Identifying Indigenous and White Individuals at High Risk for Sexual Recidivism in Canada

• Published in: Canadian psychology = Psychologie canadienne 2020-02, Vol.61 (1), p.42-57
• Main Authors: Lee, Seung C., Hanson, R. Karl, Blais, Julie
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Accuracy; At Risk Populations; Bias; Crime; Criminal Justice; Criminal statistics; Criminality; Cultural Bias; Domestic violence; Drug abuse; Education; Ethnocentrism; Human; Indigenous peoples; Indigenous Populations; Male; Native North Americans; Predictions; Predictive Validity; Public safety; Recidivism; Rehabilitation of criminals; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; Sex crimes; Sex offenders; Sex Offenses; Test Bias; White People
• ISSN: 0708-5591; 1878-7304
• DOI: 10.1037/cap0000182

In Canada, the issue of cultural bias in risk assessment tools is an ongoing concern, particularly for Indigenous peoples who are overrepresented in the criminal justice system. To date, there has been relatively little research on structured risk assessment tools for Indigenous peoples. This study examined the predictive accuracy of two sexual recidivism risk tools (Static-99R, Static-2002R) for White individuals (n = 1,560) and persons of Indigenous heritage (n = 653) from five independent Canadian samples. The results indicated that Static-99R predicted sexual recidivism with similar accuracy for both Indigenous and White individuals. Static-2002R predicted sexual recidivism only for White individuals. Indicators of general criminality (e.g., total prior offences) predicted sexual recidivism for both racial groups. In contrast, many of the sex crime-specific risk factors that have demonstrated validity in previous, predominantly White samples (e.g., male victim, noncontact sexual offence), only predicted sexual recidivism for the White study group and did not predict sexual recidivism for the Indigenous study group. Consistent with other studies, White individuals showed more indicators of paraphilic interests whereas Indigenous individuals in these samples displayed higher general criminality. The findings suggest that the treatment for individuals at risk for sexual offending may benefit from an increased focus on the distinctive risk-relevant characteristics of White and Indigenous peoples in the criminal justice system. Au Canada, la question de la subjectivité culturelle des outils d'évaluation du risque est une préoccupation constante, particulièrement pour ce qui est des peuples autochtones, qui sont surreprésentés dans le système de justice pénale. À ce jour, relativement peu de travaux de recherche ont été menés sur les outils d'évaluation du risque s'adressant particulièrement aux peuples autochtones. Cette étude s'est penchée sur l'exactitude prédictive de deux outils d'évaluation du risque de récidive des délinquants sexuels (statique-99R, statique-2002R) : l'un visant des individus blancs (n = 1560), l'autre des personnes de patrimoine autochtone (n = 653) prélevées de cinq échantillons indépendants canadiens. Les résultats indiquent que l'outil statique-99R prévoyait la récidive sexuelle avec à peu près la même précision pour les individus blancs et les individus autochtones. L'échelle statique-2002R prédisait le risque de récidive des dél