Actors, decision-making, and institutions in quantitative system modelling

Increasing realism in quantitative system modelling with respect to the representation of actors, decision-making, and institutions is critical to better understand the transition towards a low-carbon sustainable society. Yet, studies using quantitative system models, which have become a key analyti...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Technological forecasting & social change 2020-02, Vol.151, p.119480, Article 119480
Main Authors: De Cian, Enrica, Dasgupta, Shouro, Hof, Andries F., van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E., Köhler, Jonathan, Pfluger, Benjamin, van Vuuren, Detlef P.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
ABM
Actors
Actresses
Analysis
Decision making
Economic models
Governance
IAM
Institutions
Modelling
Realism
Scenarios
Social systems
Sustainability
Transition pathways
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Summary:Increasing realism in quantitative system modelling with respect to the representation of actors, decision-making, and institutions is critical to better understand the transition towards a low-carbon sustainable society. Yet, studies using quantitative system models, which have become a key analytical tool to support sustainability and decarbonization policies, focus on outcomes, therefore overlooking the dynamics of the drivers of change. We explore opportunities that arise from a deeper engagement of quantitative systems modelling with social science. We argue that several opportunities for enriching the realism in model-based scenario analysis can arise through model refinements oriented towards a more detailed approach in terms of actor heterogeneity, as well as through integration across different analytical and disciplinary approaches. Several opportunities that do not require major changes in model structure are ready to be seized. Promising ones include combining different types of models and enriching model-based scenarios with evidence from applied economics and transition studies. •Modelling of scenario analysis is key to explore low-carbon transition towards environmental goals.•Difficult to represent actors, individual decision-making, and institutions•Adopting greater realism is required to improve understanding of transition.•Combining models with empirical social science approaches could deliver new insights.•Pathways derived from Multi-Level Perspective studies can be used to enrich the characterization of institutional dimension.
ISSN:0040-1625
1873-5509
DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2018.10.004