Does the Presence of Foreign Troops Affect Stability in the Host Country?

• Published in: Foreign policy analysis 2018-10, Vol.14 (4), p.536-560
• Main Authors: Braithwaite, Alex, Kucik, Jeffrey
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Cold War; Deployment; Enforcement; Host country; Political institutions; Politics; Post Cold War period; Robustness; Stability; War
• ISSN: 1743-8586; 1743-8594
• DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orw058

Troops were deployed on an unprecedented scale during the Cold War. Much of the network of deployments established during that time has persisted long after the end of the Cold War. We look to contribute to a growing literature addressing the costs and benefits associated with hosting foreign troops. We ask: Does the presence of foreign troops affect stability in the host country? To answer this question, we develop an argument in which deployed troops are seen as a costly signal of the deploying state’s interest in and commitment to stability in the host country. The presence of foreign troops positively affects the perceived stability of the host country and the robustness of their legal and political institutions. This bolsters the enforcement of agreements between the host government and latent and manifest opposition groups to pursue alternatives to fighting. We test this logic using instrumental variables regressions in which we endogenize deployment motivations. All tests support the expectation that the presence of foreign troops reduces the likelihood of the occurrence of civil conflict in the host state.