Forest fire risk indices and zoning of hazardous areas in Sorocaba, São Paulo state, Brazil

This study compares the performance of three fire risk indices for accuracy in predicting fires in semi-deciduous forest fragments, creates a fire risk map by integrating historical fire occurrences in a probabilistic density surface using the Kernel density estimator (KDE) in the municipality of So...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of forestry research 2020-04, Vol.31 (2), p.581-590
Main Authors: Ziccardi, Leonardo Guimarães, Thiersch, Cláudio Roberto, Yanai, Aurora Miho, Fearnside, Philip Martin, Ferreira-Filho, Pedro José
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Biomedical and Life Sciences
Deciduous forests
Density
Fire hazards
Forest & brush fires
Forest fires
Forestry
Geospatial data
Habitat fragmentation
Hazardous areas
Life Sciences
Meteorological data
Meteorology
Original Paper
Weather
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Summary:This study compares the performance of three fire risk indices for accuracy in predicting fires in semi-deciduous forest fragments, creates a fire risk map by integrating historical fire occurrences in a probabilistic density surface using the Kernel density estimator (KDE) in the municipality of Sorocaba, São Paulo state, Brazil. The logarithmic Telicyn index, Monte Alegre formula (MAF) and enhanced Monte Alegre formula (MAF+) were employed using data for the period 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2016. Meteorological data and numbers of fire occurrences were obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and the Institute for Space Research (INPE), respectively. Two performance measures were calculated: Heidke skill score (SS) and success rate (SR). The MAF+ index was the most accurate, with values of SS and SR of 0.611% and 62.8%, respectively. The fire risk map revealed two most susceptible areas with high (63 km 2 ) and very high (47 km 2 ) risk of fires in the municipality. Identification of the best risk index and the generation of fire risk maps can contribute to better planning and cost reduction in preventing and fighting forest fires.
ISSN:1007-662X
1993-0607
DOI:10.1007/s11676-019-00889-x