Scenario analysis for promoting clean cooking in Sub-Saharan Africa: Costs and benefits

• Published in: Energy (Oxford) 2020-02, Vol.192, p.116641, Article 116641
• Main Authors: Dagnachew, Anteneh G., Hof, Andries F., Lucas, Paul L., van Vuuren, Detlef P.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Biodiversity; Biomass; Clean cooking; Climate change; Cooking; Cost benefit analysis; Expenditures; Fuels; Sub-Saharan Africa; Subsidies; Sustainable development goals; Universal energy access
• ISSN: 0360-5442; 1873-6785
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.116641

Nearly 900 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa rely on traditional biomass for cooking, with negative impacts on health, biodiversity and the climate. In this study, we use the IMAGE modellingframework to construct two sets of scenarios for promoting clean cooking solutions. In the first set, specific policy options to promote clean cooking are evaluated, while in the second the SDG target to achieve universal access to modern cooking energy by 2030 is imposed. The study adds knowledge to understanding the impact of individual policy options on access to clean cooking solutions, and provides insight into synergies and trade-offs of achieving the SDG targets on human health, biodiversity and climate change. The results show that, in the absence of coordinated actions, enabling policies and scaled-up finance, the number of people in Sub-Saharan Africa relying on traditional biomass cookstoves could amount to 660–820 million by 2030. Subsidies on specific clean cooking technologies or fuels could increase their use substantially, but could hinder the uptake of alternative clean cooking fuels or technologies. Meeting the SDG target has considerable social, environmental and economic benefits, and could even lead to lower total fuel expenditures. However, investments in cookstoves need to be quadrupled relative to baseline. •Baseline trends leave a billion people without access to modern cooking fuels.•Phasing-out traditional biomass may lead to lower total cost of cooking.•Clean cooking solutions could save the lives of 100 thousand children in 2030.•Harvesting biomass for cooking increases the risk of local forest degradation.•Halting the use of traditional biomass cuts emissions from cooking by at least half.