Rural-urban connectivity and agricultural land management across the Global South

• Published in: Global environmental change 2020-01, Vol.60, p.101982, Article 101982
• Main Authors: Boudet, Fanny, MacDonald, Graham K., Robinson, Brian E., Samberg, Leah H.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Access; Agricultural land; Agricultural management; Agricultural production; Agricultural resources; Agriculture; Cereal crops; Clustering; Connectivity; Crop yield; Demographic change; Demographics; Demography; GDP; Gross Domestic Product; Hypotheses; Irrigated areas; Land management; Land use; Land use planning; Migration; Population; Population density; Propensity; Rural areas; Rural communities; Rural land use; Rural populations; Rural urban migration; Rural-urban linkages; Sociodemographics; Southern Hemisphere; Spatial data; Urban agriculture; Urban areas; Urban sprawl; Urbanization
• ISSN: 0959-3780; 1872-9495
• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101982

•Simple analytical framework to assess urbanization processes affecting rural areas.•Spatial patterns in rural-urban connectivity are explored across the Global South.•Propensity score matching is used to test for rural-urban connectivity effects.•Rural-urban connectivity positively associated with irrigation in most regions.•High market access areas have 27–40% greater mean nitrogen fertilizer rates. Research on how urbanization affects rural agriculture has typically focused on loss of farmland due to urban expansion. However, more distal pathways that could link urbanization to rural agriculture, including enhanced connectivity through rural-urban migration and market access, remain poorly understood. Here, we assess whether greater rural-urban connectivity is associated with changes in agricultural land management across the Global South. Such associations are complex, and thus difficult to measure at this scale. We therefore take a two-step approach to investigate these relationships. First, using a multivariate clustering approach, we define a series of rural-urban connectivity typologies from existing spatial data on land use, demographics, rural market access, and rural population change (as a proxy for outmigration). We examine the variation in key agricultural outcome variables (mean cereal crop yields, % of attainable yields met, and cropping frequency) within the typologies, which shows that greater overall connectivity (market access and population change) is associated with higher cereal yields, yield attainment, and cropping frequency. Second, building on these clustering results, we develop hypotheses about the relationship between rural-urban connectivity and agricultural land use intensity. We then use propensity score matching to test these hypotheses by comparing locations with similar sociodemographic and land use characteristics. When controlling for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, agricultural land, and population density, rural locations with relatively high market access, negative population change, and greater built-up area have significantly higher mean nitrogen application rates, irrigated areas, and cereal yields across the Global South. Results vary by region, but greater rural-urban connectivity and urban extents are generally associated with higher overall agricultural inputs and yields, particularly in Asia. However, we find little support for a relationship between connectivity and either % attainable yields met o