Probabilistic estimation of seismic parameters for Bangladesh

This paper estimates the following seismic parameters: the maximum recorded magnitude ( M m a x ), the Gutenberg-Richter b -value, the annual rate of exceedance of particular magnitude, and return period of that magnitude are examined. The catalog is extracted from the Advanced National Seismic Syst...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Arabian journal of geosciences 2020-03, Vol.13 (6), Article 262
Main Authors: Hossain, Belal, Hossain, Syed Shahadat
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Catalogues
Confidence intervals
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth science
Earth Sciences
Mathematical analysis
Original Paper
Parameter estimation
Parameters
Quantiles
Seismic properties
Simulation
Statistical analysis
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Summary:This paper estimates the following seismic parameters: the maximum recorded magnitude ( M m a x ), the Gutenberg-Richter b -value, the annual rate of exceedance of particular magnitude, and return period of that magnitude are examined. The catalog is extracted from the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) catalog. The working catalog, originated from longitude 87 to 93 and latitude 20 to 27 that covers the whole Bangladesh and some parts of India and Myanmar, contains 406 events from 1918 to 2017. To define the working catalog, magnitudes were converted into moment magnitude. All parameters had been calculated from the time-independent catalog. Since no formula available in the literature to calculate the confidence interval for annual rate and return period, the confidence interval of the estimates were calculated using simulation technique. For this case, 100,000 simulations were considered and calculated 0.025th and 0.975th quantiles of the simulated values as 95% confidence interval.
ISSN:1866-7511
1866-7538
DOI:10.1007/s12517-020-5250-y