New stochastic highway capacity estimation method and why product limit method is unsuitable

• Published in: arXiv.org 2020-03
• Main Author: Mikolasek, Igor
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Breakdown; Flow measurement; Maximum likelihood estimates; Methods; Traffic capacity; Traffic flow; Traffic speed
• ISSN: 2331-8422

Kaplan-Meier estimate, commonly known as product limit method (PLM), and maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) methods in general are often cited as means of stochastic highway capacity estimation. This article discusses their unsuitability for such application as properties of traffic flow do not meet the assumptions for use of the methods. They assume the observed subject has a history which it went through and did not fail. However, due to its nature, each traffic flow measurement behaves as a separate subject which did not go through all the lower levels of intensity (did not "age"). An alternative method is proposed. It fits the resulting cumulative frequency of breakdowns with respect to the traffic flow intensity leading to the breakdown instead of directly estimating the underlying probability distribution of capacity. Analyses of accuracy and sensitivity to data quantity and censoring rate of the new method are provided along with comparison to the PLM. The results prove unsuitability of the PLM and MLE methods in general. The new method is then used in a case study which compares capacity of a work-zone with and without a traffic flow speed harmonisation system installed. The results confirm positive effect of harmonisation on capacity.