Policy and Performance in the New Deal Realignment: Evidence from Old Data and New Methods

Recent research has challenged the policy bases of the New Deal realignment, arguing that it was instead driven by retrospective evaluations of the economy. Using a comprehensive analysis of opinion polls conducted in 1936–52, we argue that policy preferences were far from irrelevant. At the individ...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Journal of politics 2020-04, Vol.82 (2), p.494-508
Main Authors: Caughey, Devin, Dougal, Michael C., Schickler, Eric
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Data
Democratization
Item response theory
New Deal
Partisanship
Political parties
Presidential elections
Public opinion
Public opinion surveys
Realignment
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Summary:Recent research has challenged the policy bases of the New Deal realignment, arguing that it was instead driven by retrospective evaluations of the economy. Using a comprehensive analysis of opinion polls conducted in 1936–52, we argue that policy preferences were far from irrelevant. At the individual level, presidential Republicans who became Democrats were much more supportive of New Deal policies than those who remained loyal (vice versa for Democrats). At the state level, both public support for the New Deal—as measured by a group-level item response model—and income growth predict pro-Democratic shifts in presidential elections. In short, the realignment was rooted in both policy preferences and economic retrospection. Moreover, mass support for the New Deal, unlike partisan identification, was a leading indicator of long-term electoral trends, predicting presidential elections decades in the future even better than it does contemporaneous elections.
ISSN:0022-3816
1468-2508
DOI:10.1086/707305