Mathematical model of COVID-19 intervention scenarios for Sao Paulo- Brazil

An epidemiological compartmental model was used to simulate social distancing strategies to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent a second wave in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Optimization using genetic algorithm was used to determine the optimal solutions. Our results suggest the best-case strategy for S...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:arXiv.org 2020-05
Main Authors: Osmar Pinto Neto, Jose Clark Reis, Ana Carolina Brisola Brizzi, Zambrano, Gustavo Jose, Joabe Marcos de Souza, Wellington Amorim Pedroso, Rodrigo Cunha de Mello Pedreiro, Bruno de Matos Brizzi, Ellysson Oliveira Abinader, Kennedy, Deanna M, Renato Amaro Zangaro
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Computer simulation
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Genetic algorithms
Hygiene
Mathematical models
Optimization
Social distancing
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:An epidemiological compartmental model was used to simulate social distancing strategies to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent a second wave in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Optimization using genetic algorithm was used to determine the optimal solutions. Our results suggest the best-case strategy for Sao Paulo is to maintain or increase the current magnitude of social distancing for at least 60 more days and increase the current levels of personal protection behaviors by a minimum of 10% (e.g., wearing facemasks, proper hand hygiene and avoid agglomeration). Followed by a long-term oscillatory level of social distancing with a stepping-down approach every 80 days over a period of two years with continued protective behavior.
ISSN:2331-8422
DOI:10.48550/arxiv.2005.09426