Flood Risk Evaluation in Ungauged Coastal Areas: The Case Study of Ippocampo (Southern Italy)

• Published in: Water (Basel) 2020-05, Vol.12 (5), p.1466
• Main Authors: Apollonio, Ciro, Bruno, Maria Francesca, Iemmolo, Gabriele, Molfetta, Matteo Gianluca, Pellicani, Roberta
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Beaches; Case studies; Coastal management; Coastal zone; Coastal zone management; Coasts; Computer simulation; Economic impact; Economics; Environmental aspects; Environmental risk; Flood damage; Flood forecasting; Flooding; Floods; Flow velocity; Geology; Hydraulic models; Hydrogeology; Hydrology; Italy; Methods; Mitigation; Rain; Reliability analysis; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Risk factors; Risk reduction; Safety management; Safety measures; Sea level; Spatial distribution; Storm damage; Storm surges; Storms; Tidal waves; Topography; Two dimensional models; Wetlands
• ISSN: 2073-4441; 2073-4441
• DOI: 10.3390/w12051466

The growing concentration of population and the related increase in human activities in coastal areas require numerical simulations to analyze the effects of flooding events that might occur in susceptible coastal areas in order to determine effective coastal management practices and safety measures to safeguard the inhabited coastal areas. The reliability of the analysis is dependent on the correct evaluation of key inputs such as return period of flooding events, vulnerability of exposed assets, and other risk factors (e.g., spatial distribution of elements at risk, their economic value, etc.). This paper defines a methodology to assess the effects of flooding events associated with basin run-off and storm surge in coastal areas. The assessment aims at quantifying in economic terms (e.g., loss of assets) the risk of coastal areas subject to flooding events. The methodology proposed in this paper was implemented to determine the areas subject to inundation on a coastal area in Southern Italy prone to hydrogeological instability and coastal inundation. A two-dimensional hydraulic model was adopted to simulate storm surges generated by severe sea storms coupled with intense rainfalls in order to determine the areas subject to inundation in the low-land area along the Adriatic coast object of this study. In conclusion, the economic risk corresponding to four different flooding scenarios was assessed by correlating the exceedance probability of each flooding scenario with the potential economic losses that might be realized in the inundated areas. The results of the assessment can inform decision-makers responsible for the deployment of risk mitigation measures.