Storm Track Changes in the Middle East and North Africa Under Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering

• Published in: Geophysical research letters 2020-07, Vol.47 (14), p.n/a
• Main Authors: Karami, K., Tilmes, S., Muri, H., Mousavi, S. V.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Aerosols; Climate change; Climate change mitigation; Climate effects; Climate policy; Emissions control; Environmental policy; Geoengineering; Global temperatures; Global warming; Greenhouse effect; Greenhouse gases; Mean temperatures; Mitigation; Side effects; Solar radiation; Southern Hemisphere; Storm tracks; Storms; Stresses; Tracks (paths)
• ISSN: 0094-8276; 1944-8007
• DOI: 10.1029/2020GL086954

As a potential approach to prevent dangerous climate change, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) aims to reflect some incoming solar radiation into space and reduce temperatures. Previous modeling studies suggest that storm tracks will shift poleward due to the increases in the greenhouse gas concentrations. As a consequence of this, the Middle East, North Africa, and Mediterranean regions will most likely experience a strong precipitation decrease, increasing the pressure on the region's vulnerable environment. Our results from an Earth system model indicate that SAG can partially offset the poleward shift of the storm tracks, thus potentially soothing the environmental and water stresses of the region. However, other climatic side effects may occur, hence still motivating ambitious mitigation action to reduce emissions and impacts of global warming. The results presented may have practical implications for ongoing climate policy debates in the region. Plain Language Summary As a potential approach to prevent dangerous climate change, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering aims to reflect a small percentage of incoming solar radiation into space to reduce the global mean temperature. However, regional impacts are not clear, especially in the global south. This article provides the first analysis of changes in the storm‐tracks from stratospheric aerosol geoengineering in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The results of our study indicate that the poleward shift of the storm‐tracks due to increases in the greenhouse gas concentration could be partially offset, and thus potentially sooth some of the environmental, in particular water, stresses. However, other side effects may occur, motivating for an ambitious mitigation pathway still. Key Points The response of storm tracks in the Middle East and North Africa to stratospheric geoengineering is investigated Simulations show that effects of global warming may be partially offset, through a reduced northwards shift of storm tracks. However, it involves side effect, not present in the global warming scenario Some of the environmental and water stresses of the region may be alleviated by stratospheric geoengineering