Forest fires in Portugal - case study, 18 june 2017

Forest fires that occurred in Portugal on June 18, 2017, caused several tens of human casualties. The cause of their emergence, as well as many others that occurred in western Europe at the same time remained unknown. Taking into account consequences, including loss of human lives and endangerment o...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Thermal science 2019, Vol.23 (1), p.73-86
Main Authors: Radovanovic, Milan, Vyklyuk, Yaroslav, Stevancevic, Milan, Milenkovic, Milan, Jakovljevic, Dejana, Petrovic, Marko, Malinovic-Milicevic, Slavica, Vukovic, Natalia, Vujko, Aleksandra, Yamashkin, Anatoliy, Sydor, Petro, Vukovic, Darko, Skoda, Miroslav
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adaptive systems
Artificial neural networks
Casualties
Charged particles
Correlation analysis
Forest & brush fires
Forest fires
Fuzzy logic
Hypotheses
Laboratory tests
Solar wind
Time lag
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Summary:Forest fires that occurred in Portugal on June 18, 2017, caused several tens of human casualties. The cause of their emergence, as well as many others that occurred in western Europe at the same time remained unknown. Taking into account consequences, including loss of human lives and endangerment of ecosystem sustainability, discovering of the forest fires causes is the very significant question. The heliocentric hypothesis has indirectly been tested, according to which charged particles are a possible cause of forest fires. We must point out that it was not possible to verify whether in this specific case the particles by reaching the ground and burning the plant mass create the initial phase of the formation of the flame. Therefore, we have tried to determine whether during the critical period, i. e. from June 15-19 there is a certain statistical connection between certain parameters of the solar wind and meteorological elements. Based on the hourly values of the charged particles flow, a correlation analysis was performed with hourly values of individual meteorological elements including time lag at Monte Real station. The application of the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System models has shown that there is a high degree of connection between the flow of protons and the analyzed meteorological elements in Portugal. However, further verification of this hypothesis requires further laboratory testing. nema
ISSN:0354-9836
2334-7163
DOI:10.2298/TSCI180803251R