Bayesian Context Trees: Modelling and exact inference for discrete time series

We develop a new Bayesian modelling framework for the class of higher-order, variable-memory Markov chains, and introduce an associated collection of methodological tools for exact inference with discrete time series. We show that a version of the context tree weighting algorithm can compute the pri...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:arXiv.org 2022-02
Main Authors: Kontoyiannis, Ioannis, Mertzanis, Lambros, Panotopoulou, Athina, Papageorgiou, Ioannis, Skoularidou, Maria
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Algorithms
Animal communication
Bayesian analysis
Computer simulation
Context
Inference
Markov chains
Modelling
Parameter identification
Samplers
Time series
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Summary:We develop a new Bayesian modelling framework for the class of higher-order, variable-memory Markov chains, and introduce an associated collection of methodological tools for exact inference with discrete time series. We show that a version of the context tree weighting algorithm can compute the prior predictive likelihood exactly (averaged over both models and parameters), and two related algorithms are introduced, which identify the a posteriori most likely models and compute their exact posterior probabilities. All three algorithms are deterministic and have linear-time complexity. A family of variable-dimension Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers is also provided, facilitating further exploration of the posterior. The performance of the proposed methods in model selection, Markov order estimation and prediction is illustrated through simulation experiments and real-world applications with data from finance, genetics, neuroscience, and animal communication. The associated algorithms are implemented in the R package BCT.
ISSN:2331-8422