Application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy interference system models for prediction of forest fires in the usa on the basis of solar activity

In this research we search for a functional dependence between the occurrence of forest fires in the USA and the factors which characterize the solar activity. For this purpose we used several methods (R/S analysis, Hurst index) to establish potential links between the influx of some parameters from...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Thermal science 2015, Vol.19 (5), p.1649-1661
Main Authors: Radovanovic, Milan, Vyklyuk, Yaroslav, Milenkovic, Milan, Vukovic, Darko, Matsiuk, Nataliya
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adaptive systems
Artificial neural networks
Forest & brush fires
Forest fires
Fuzzy logic
Interference
Solar activity
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Summary:In this research we search for a functional dependence between the occurrence of forest fires in the USA and the factors which characterize the solar activity. For this purpose we used several methods (R/S analysis, Hurst index) to establish potential links between the influx of some parameters from the sun and the occurrence of forest fires with lag of several days. We found evidence for a connection and developed a prognostic scenario based on the Adaptive neuro-fuzzy interference system (ANFIS) technique. This scenario allows the prediction between 79-93% of forest fires.
ISSN:0354-9836
2334-7163
DOI:10.2298/TSCI150210093R