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An empirical model for fatality estimation of earthquakes in Iran
In order to estimate the human loss after an earthquake to address risk mitigation and response measures, appropriate models should be developed based on local conditions. In this paper, an empirical model for estimating the mortality rate based on shaking related parameter (PGA) is presented for Ir...
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Published in: | Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2020-08, Vol.103 (1), p.231-250 |
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description | In order to estimate the human loss after an earthquake to address risk mitigation and response measures, appropriate models should be developed based on local conditions. In this paper, an empirical model for estimating the mortality rate based on shaking related parameter (PGA) is presented for Iran. For this purpose, a reliable fatality database of past earthquakes occurred in the country (between 1962 and 2017) along with corresponding ground motion shaking maps were compiled. It includes information of 88 fatal earthquakes in different cities and villages, compiled from reliable resources. Three distinct functional forms including log-linear, exponential and lognormal cumulative distribution were applied to be fitted to data. To evaluate the appropriateness of different functional forms a residual analysis was performed. The results indicate that the log-linear model shows the best performance. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of events with highest contributions in database on fatality function. The results depicted that excluding data of Bam (2003), Iran Earthquake may reduce fatality ratio to about 5%. This can be related to the paucity of data in high acceleration ranges (near 800 cm/s
2
) in the database. Finally, two separate curves have been developed for day and night. As expected, the result depicted that fatality ratio in day time is much lower than the night hours. The proposed model can be used for rapid loss assessment in Iran and other countries with similar construction types to provide an initial estimation of deaths after earthquakes or determining the priorities for risk reduction. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s11069-020-03985-y |
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2
) in the database. Finally, two separate curves have been developed for day and night. As expected, the result depicted that fatality ratio in day time is much lower than the night hours. The proposed model can be used for rapid loss assessment in Iran and other countries with similar construction types to provide an initial estimation of deaths after earthquakes or determining the priorities for risk reduction.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0921-030X</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1573-0840</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03985-y</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands</publisher><subject>Civil Engineering ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Earthquakes ; Empirical analysis ; Empirical models ; Environmental Management ; Fatalities ; Geophysics/Geodesy ; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences ; Ground motion ; High acceleration ; Hydrogeology ; Mitigation ; Natural Hazards ; Night ; Original Paper ; Risk management ; Risk reduction ; Seismic activity ; Sensitivity analysis ; Shaking</subject><ispartof>Natural hazards (Dordrecht), 2020-08, Vol.103 (1), p.231-250</ispartof><rights>Springer Nature B.V. 2020</rights><rights>Springer Nature B.V. 2020.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c319t-280a633f15b9964b666633031682e0dbe6a44e4e3bbc40f2630d0d7d40ea88033</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c319t-280a633f15b9964b666633031682e0dbe6a44e4e3bbc40f2630d0d7d40ea88033</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27924,27925</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Firuzi, Erfan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Amini Hosseini, Kambod</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ansari, Anooshiravan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Izadkhah, Yasamin O.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rashidabadi, Mina</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hosseini, Mohammad</creatorcontrib><title>An empirical model for fatality estimation of earthquakes in Iran</title><title>Natural hazards (Dordrecht)</title><addtitle>Nat Hazards</addtitle><description>In order to estimate the human loss after an earthquake to address risk mitigation and response measures, appropriate models should be developed based on local conditions. In this paper, an empirical model for estimating the mortality rate based on shaking related parameter (PGA) is presented for Iran. For this purpose, a reliable fatality database of past earthquakes occurred in the country (between 1962 and 2017) along with corresponding ground motion shaking maps were compiled. It includes information of 88 fatal earthquakes in different cities and villages, compiled from reliable resources. Three distinct functional forms including log-linear, exponential and lognormal cumulative distribution were applied to be fitted to data. To evaluate the appropriateness of different functional forms a residual analysis was performed. The results indicate that the log-linear model shows the best performance. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of events with highest contributions in database on fatality function. The results depicted that excluding data of Bam (2003), Iran Earthquake may reduce fatality ratio to about 5%. This can be related to the paucity of data in high acceleration ranges (near 800 cm/s
2
) in the database. Finally, two separate curves have been developed for day and night. As expected, the result depicted that fatality ratio in day time is much lower than the night hours. The proposed model can be used for rapid loss assessment in Iran and other countries with similar construction types to provide an initial estimation of deaths after earthquakes or determining the priorities for risk reduction.</description><subject>Civil Engineering</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Earthquakes</subject><subject>Empirical analysis</subject><subject>Empirical models</subject><subject>Environmental Management</subject><subject>Fatalities</subject><subject>Geophysics/Geodesy</subject><subject>Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Ground motion</subject><subject>High acceleration</subject><subject>Hydrogeology</subject><subject>Mitigation</subject><subject>Natural Hazards</subject><subject>Night</subject><subject>Original Paper</subject><subject>Risk management</subject><subject>Risk reduction</subject><subject>Seismic activity</subject><subject>Sensitivity analysis</subject><subject>Shaking</subject><issn>0921-030X</issn><issn>1573-0840</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp9kD9PwzAQxS0EEqXwBZgsMRvOPse1x6riT6VKLCCxWU5iQ0qatHY65NtjCBIbt9xw7717-hFyzeGWAyzuEuegDAMBDNDogo0nZMaLBTLQEk7JDIzg-QRv5-QipS0A50qYGVkuO-p3-yY2lWvprq99S0MfaXCDa5thpD4Nzc4NTd_RPlDv4vBxOLpPn2jT0XV03SU5C65N_up3z8nrw_3L6oltnh_Xq-WGVcjNwIQGpxADL0pjlCxVHkRArrTwUJdeOSm99FiWlYQgFEIN9aKW4J3WgDgnN1PuPvaHY65lt_0xdvmlFRKhEFJokVViUlWxTyn6YPcx94-j5WC_UdkJlc2o7A8qO2YTTqaUxd27j3_R_7i-AAV2azo</recordid><startdate>20200801</startdate><enddate>20200801</enddate><creator>Firuzi, Erfan</creator><creator>Amini Hosseini, Kambod</creator><creator>Ansari, Anooshiravan</creator><creator>Izadkhah, Yasamin O.</creator><creator>Rashidabadi, Mina</creator><creator>Hosseini, Mohammad</creator><general>Springer Netherlands</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABJCF</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>L6V</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>M7S</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PTHSS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>SOI</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20200801</creationdate><title>An empirical model for fatality estimation of earthquakes in Iran</title><author>Firuzi, Erfan ; Amini Hosseini, Kambod ; Ansari, Anooshiravan ; Izadkhah, Yasamin O. ; Rashidabadi, Mina ; Hosseini, Mohammad</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c319t-280a633f15b9964b666633031682e0dbe6a44e4e3bbc40f2630d0d7d40ea88033</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Civil Engineering</topic><topic>Earth and Environmental Science</topic><topic>Earth Sciences</topic><topic>Earthquakes</topic><topic>Empirical analysis</topic><topic>Empirical models</topic><topic>Environmental Management</topic><topic>Fatalities</topic><topic>Geophysics/Geodesy</topic><topic>Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences</topic><topic>Ground motion</topic><topic>High acceleration</topic><topic>Hydrogeology</topic><topic>Mitigation</topic><topic>Natural Hazards</topic><topic>Night</topic><topic>Original Paper</topic><topic>Risk management</topic><topic>Risk reduction</topic><topic>Seismic activity</topic><topic>Sensitivity analysis</topic><topic>Shaking</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Firuzi, Erfan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Amini Hosseini, Kambod</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ansari, Anooshiravan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Izadkhah, Yasamin O.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rashidabadi, Mina</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hosseini, Mohammad</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Materials Science & Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Technology Collection</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>ProQuest Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Science Journals</collection><collection>Engineering Database</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>Engineering collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><jtitle>Natural hazards (Dordrecht)</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Firuzi, Erfan</au><au>Amini Hosseini, Kambod</au><au>Ansari, Anooshiravan</au><au>Izadkhah, Yasamin O.</au><au>Rashidabadi, Mina</au><au>Hosseini, Mohammad</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>An empirical model for fatality estimation of earthquakes in Iran</atitle><jtitle>Natural hazards (Dordrecht)</jtitle><stitle>Nat Hazards</stitle><date>2020-08-01</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>103</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>231</spage><epage>250</epage><pages>231-250</pages><issn>0921-030X</issn><eissn>1573-0840</eissn><abstract>In order to estimate the human loss after an earthquake to address risk mitigation and response measures, appropriate models should be developed based on local conditions. In this paper, an empirical model for estimating the mortality rate based on shaking related parameter (PGA) is presented for Iran. For this purpose, a reliable fatality database of past earthquakes occurred in the country (between 1962 and 2017) along with corresponding ground motion shaking maps were compiled. It includes information of 88 fatal earthquakes in different cities and villages, compiled from reliable resources. Three distinct functional forms including log-linear, exponential and lognormal cumulative distribution were applied to be fitted to data. To evaluate the appropriateness of different functional forms a residual analysis was performed. The results indicate that the log-linear model shows the best performance. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of events with highest contributions in database on fatality function. The results depicted that excluding data of Bam (2003), Iran Earthquake may reduce fatality ratio to about 5%. This can be related to the paucity of data in high acceleration ranges (near 800 cm/s
2
) in the database. Finally, two separate curves have been developed for day and night. As expected, the result depicted that fatality ratio in day time is much lower than the night hours. The proposed model can be used for rapid loss assessment in Iran and other countries with similar construction types to provide an initial estimation of deaths after earthquakes or determining the priorities for risk reduction.</abstract><cop>Dordrecht</cop><pub>Springer Netherlands</pub><doi>10.1007/s11069-020-03985-y</doi><tpages>20</tpages></addata></record> |
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subjects | Civil Engineering Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Earthquakes Empirical analysis Empirical models Environmental Management Fatalities Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Ground motion High acceleration Hydrogeology Mitigation Natural Hazards Night Original Paper Risk management Risk reduction Seismic activity Sensitivity analysis Shaking |
title | An empirical model for fatality estimation of earthquakes in Iran |
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