Machine Learning and Meta-Analysis Approach to Identify Patient Comorbidities and Symptoms that Increased Risk of Mortality in COVID-19

• Published in: arXiv.org 2020-08
• Main Authors: Aktar, Sakifa, Talukder, Ashis, Md Martuza Ahamad, Kamal, A H M, Jahidur Rahman Khan, Protikuzzaman, Md, Hossain, Nasif, Quinn, Julian M W, Summers, Mathew A, Liaw, Teng, Eapen, Valsamma, Mohammad Ali Moni
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Asthma; Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; Classification; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Diabetes; Heart diseases; Hypertension; Machine learning; Mortality; Pneumonia; Risk; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Signs and symptoms; Viral diseases; Viruses
• ISSN: 2331-8422
• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2008.12683

Background: Providing appropriate care for people suffering from COVID-19, the disease caused by the pandemic SARS-CoV-2 virus is a significant global challenge. Many individuals who become infected have pre-existing conditions that may interact with COVID-19 to increase symptom severity and mortality risk. COVID-19 patient comorbidities are likely to be informative about individual risk of severe illness and mortality. Accurately determining how comorbidities are associated with severe symptoms and mortality would thus greatly assist in COVID-19 care planning and provision. Methods: To assess the interaction of patient comorbidities with COVID-19 severity and mortality we performed a meta-analysis of the published global literature, and machine learning predictive analysis using an aggregated COVID-19 global dataset. Results: Our meta-analysis identified chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cerebrovascular disease (CEVD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes, malignancy, and hypertension as most significantly associated with COVID-19 severity in the current published literature. Machine learning classification using novel aggregated cohort data similarly found COPD, CVD, CKD, type 2 diabetes, malignancy and hypertension, as well as asthma, as the most significant features for classifying those deceased versus those who survived COVID-19. While age and gender were the most significant predictor of mortality, in terms of symptom-comorbidity combinations, it was observed that Pneumonia-Hypertension, Pneumonia-Diabetes and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS)-Hypertension showed the most significant effects on COVID-19 mortality. Conclusions: These results highlight patient cohorts most at risk of COVID-19 related severe morbidity and mortality which have implications for prioritization of hospital resources.