Google trends identifying seasons of religious gathering: applied to investigate the correlation between crowding and flu outbreak

• Published in: Information processing & management 2020-05, Vol.57 (3), p.102208, Article 102208
• Main Authors: Elhussein, Mariam, Brahimi, Samiha, Alreedy, Abdullah, Alqahtani, Mohammed, Olatunji, Sunday O.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Correlation analysis; Crowding; Crowds; Data analysis; Epidemics; Flu; Flu outbreak; Google Trends; Hajj; Influenza; Information retrieval; Mass gathering; Medical research; Outbreaks; Respiratory diseases; Saudi Arabia; Search engines; Seasonal variations; Seasonality; Seasons; Statistical analysis; Trends; Umrah seasons
• ISSN: 0306-4573; 1873-5371
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ipm.2020.102208

•Umrah is a Religious ritual that can happen any time in the year. Many people gather in the holy city of Makkah in Saudi Arabia which represents a health hazard.•It is difficult to identify crowding seasons for Umrah.•Google Trends has been used in research to track people interest. It is used in this research to find Umrah monthly seasonality.•Mass gathering is considered as intensifying factor for flu outbreaks.•In the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, there are seasons with more Umrah performers according to Google Trends. Mainly in the months of Rajab (7th month) and Ramadan (9th month), and ThuAlqidah (11th month) in the Islamic Lunar calendar.•The research found a correlation between these months and flu cases reported in the Province hospital. Peaks were noticed three months after seasons of gatherings. In medical research, mass gathering is considered as one of the intensifying factors for respiratory disease outbreaks. An annual crowding event happens during Muslims’ religious practices of Hajj in Saudi Arabia. Another smaller ritual happens all year round, known as Umrah. While Hajj season is recognized, Umrah seasonality is challenging to identify. This paper uses data from Google Trends to identify Umrah seasons for performers from the Eastern Province in Saudi Arabia. It then investigates the correlation between mass gathering events as it affects the flu spread in the Eastern Province through the use of data. Patient data from a hospital was obtained to find flu seasonality and compared to crowding seasons. Google Trend data was confirmed by a limited dataset of official Umrah data and Flu data was confirmed by official FluNet data from neighboring country, Bahrain. An Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) approach has been followed to identify the seasonality. Cross-correlation analysis found a strong positive correlation between crowding seasons and flu outbreaks in the Eastern Province with a forward shift of flu data for three months.