Modeling the natural gas supply chain for sustainable growth policy

Natural gas has been used globally as a transitional fuel for supporting a green-energy-supply strategy, which has been questioned for the intermittence and lack of reliability of renewables. This paper proposes a System Dynamics model for assessing alternative security of supply policy along the na...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Energy (Oxford) 2020-08, Vol.205, p.118018, Article 118018
Main Authors: Becerra-Fernandez, Mauricio, Cosenz, Federico, Dyner, Isaac
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Case-study
Clean energy
Colombia
Evaluation
Natural gas
Natural gas industry
Natural gas prices
Natural gas supply
Natural gas supply chain
Oil and gas industry
Policy design and assessment
Public policy
Reliability analysis
Resource allocation
Security
Supply chains
System dynamics
Systems dynamics modeling
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Summary:Natural gas has been used globally as a transitional fuel for supporting a green-energy-supply strategy, which has been questioned for the intermittence and lack of reliability of renewables. This paper proposes a System Dynamics model for assessing alternative security of supply policy along the natural gas value chain. The model incorporates demand, transport, production and reserves of natural gas variables according to a systemic perspective. It also includes a module for evaluating the effect of natural gas price on the demand and supply levels, respectively. Alternative supply policies are evaluated under different scenarios. The chosen case-study focuses on the Colombian natural gas industry with the purpose of assessing how the impact of public policies affect supply and demand. Particularly, policies consider the allocation of resources along the natural gas supply chain, seeking to promote the development of infrastructure oriented to mitigate the risk of provision shortages. •A novel model is developed for the natural gas supply chain.•The main actors involved are analyzed in an integrated manner.•Modelled policies are evaluated prospectively.•Policies attain sustainable growth of the natural gas supply chain.
ISSN:0360-5442
1873-6785
DOI:10.1016/j.energy.2020.118018