Simulation of seismic ground motion fields via object-oriented spatial statistics with an application in Northern Italy

This work offers a novel methodological framework to address the problem of generating data-driven earthquake shaking fields at different vibration periods, which are key to support decision making and civil protection planning. We propose to analyse the entire profiles of spectral accelerations and...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2020-10, Vol.34 (10), p.1607-1627
Main Authors: Menafoglio, Alessandra, Sgobba, Sara, Lanzano, Giovanni, Pacor, Francesca
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aquatic Pollution
Chemistry and Earth Sciences
Computational Intelligence
Computer Science
Decision analysis
Decision making
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earthquakes
Environment
Ergodic processes
Ground motion
Math. Appl. in Environmental Science
Object oriented programming
Original Paper
Physics
Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes
Seismic activity
Shaking
Statistics
Statistics for Engineering
Vibration
Waste Water Technology
Water Management
Water Pollution Control
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Summary:This work offers a novel methodological framework to address the problem of generating data-driven earthquake shaking fields at different vibration periods, which are key to support decision making and civil protection planning. We propose to analyse the entire profiles of spectral accelerations and project their information content to unsampled locations in the system, based on the theory of Object Oriented Spatial Statistics. The proposed methodology combines a non-ergodic ground motion model with a fully functional model for the residual term, the latter consisting of (i) the spatially-varying systematic effects due to source, site and path, and (ii) the remaining aleatory error. The proposed methodology allows to generate multiple shaking scenarios conditioned on the data, jointly and consistently for all the vibration periods, overcoming the intrinsic limitations of existing multivariate approaches to the problem. The approach is tested on a vast dataset of ground motion records collected in the study-area of the Po Plain (Northern Italy), for which a region-specific fully non-ergodic GMM was previously calibrated. Our validation tests demonstrate the potentiality of the approach, which is capable to effectively simulate spectral acceleration profiles, while keeping the ability to capture the main physical features of ground motion patterns in the region.
ISSN:1436-3240
1436-3259
DOI:10.1007/s00477-020-01847-4